JERUSALEM – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election bid has received no boost from – and may have even been damaged by – US President Donald Trump’s unusually explicit endorsement, a poll by the country’s top-rated TV station found.
Projections for the Oct 27 vote are unchanged, Channel 12 said on Oct 19, citing a survey from earlier in the day that gave Netanyahu’s Likud party 21 of Parliament’s 120 seats, with 24 going to Yashar, lead by main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot.
The poll was carried out after Trump on Oct 18 called Netanyahu “strong, brave, and brilliant” and gave his “total endorsement” to Israel’s longest-standing leader.
While the impact of Trump’s Truth Media post may take longer to show up in polling, the Channel 12 survey hints at the US leader’s waning popularity among Israelis and the likelihood that many of them have already made up their minds on who to vote for.
Of the respondents, 64% said it would not influence their decision and 17% said it made them less likely to back Netanyahu.
Some 12% said Trump’s announcement would reinforce their decision to vote for Likud.
Asked who’s better suited for the next premiership, 45% of respondents said Eisenkot against 33% for Netanyahu, with 17% saying neither or that they were undecided.
Another challenger, Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, had 39% backing for top office when pitted against Netanyahu, who got 34%.
According to trading on Polymarket, Eisenkot has a roughly 50% chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister, while the chances of Netanyahu leading the next government stand at 29%.
With no single party likely to win a majority on its own, it could be weeks or months before any candidate is able to form a governing coalition.
Trump has long been appreciated by Israelis for his partnership with Netanyahu in 2025’s 12-day war against Iran, as well as the ongoing conflict that began in February.
Yet Israelis’ confidence in the US president sagged when he signed an interim agreement in June aimed at ending hostilities with Tehran.
Israelis – as well as many Republicans in the US – said the so-called memorandum of understanding made too many concessions to Iran.
“Obviously, the public may still need more time to process Trump’s endorsement,” said Daphna Liel, political correspondent for Channel 12, which is also known as N12.
“For the time being, at least, Trump’s endorsement hasn’t helped Netanyahu, and appears to have actually worsened his situation.”
The poll commissioned by Channel 12 had a representative sample of 507 respondents and a 4.4% margin of error.
Trump’s endorsements of foreign leaders part with the traditional White House reticence regarding elections abroad.
Their record for efficacy has been patchy.
Hungary’s Viktor Orban lost power in 2026 despite being openly backed by Trump.
Netanyahu has accused previous US presidents of tacitly working with his challengers.
After his first election victory in 1996, Netanyahu claimed this week that then President Bill Clinton said: “Congratulations, Bibi. You beat us. We tried everything to bring you down, and you beat us.”
The shock Hamas invasion of Oct 7, 2023 hurt Netanyahu’s credibility, and he’s played up the gains of Israel’s ensuing multi-front offensives to try to claw back domestic support.
He argues he’s best-placed to collaborate with Trump before he steps down in 2029 and has warned that Israel may face a less-friendly leader in the White House after that.
The Israeli government’s standing among Americans, especially Democrats, has dived since the start of the war in Gaza, which was triggered by the Hamas attack. I
t’s also taken a hit because of 2026’s bombing campaign against Iran and the resulting surge in fuel prices.
J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice-president, who has been critical of Israel in recent months, declined to back Netanyahu in an interview with journalist Mark Halperin on Oct 19.
“I’m not anti-endorsing him,” Vance said. “I’m not pro-endorsing him. I’m not getting involved in Israeli elections.” BLOOMBERG