Sarawak polls: DAP projected to win two to four seats, says analyst
PETALING JAYA: DAP could increase its representation in the coming Sarawak election from two seats to as many as four, with Sibu emerging as a potential opportunity following changes in the opposition landscape, said political analyst James Chin.
He said DAP remains the opposition party with the clearest prospects of winning seats, although a larger recovery would depend on the campaign and whether Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) makes a major misstep.
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“It is a real uphill battle because Abang Jo is quite popular among the Chinese community,” he said, referring to Sarawak Premier Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg.
He added that the contest is expected to centre on Chinese-majority constituencies, while Malay and Dayak seats are less likely to be competitive.
“In other words, even before the election, most people already think these seats would be won by GPS. So, it is the Chinese seats that are competitive, as in other elections in Malaysia.”
He also said the rise of state nationalism has fuelled calls among some Sarawak Chinese for DAP to leave its national party structure and establish itself as a state-based party.
“This is due to the rise of state nationalism. People do not vote for DAP because it is seen as a peninsula-based party. People do not like peninsula-based and federal-style politics. Therefore, they prefer a state-based party.”
Chin said Sarawak DAP leaders have maintained that remaining part of a larger national coalition is important, and that the party still has its supporters.
“That argument has not really been accepted by a lot of Sarawak Chinese.”
Despite these challenges, Chin expects DAP to retain Padungan and Pending, which he described as its strongest constituencies and long-standing strongholds since the 1980s.
He said both seats have a long history of opposition support and would be difficult for GPS to wrest from DAP.
He added that middle-class voters in Sarawak value a strong opposition voice and are unlikely to give the ruling coalition every seat.
He identified Sibu as one possible area for DAP to make gains, partly because of changes in the opposition landscape since the 2021 state election.
Chin attributed some of DAP’s previous losses in Sibu to competition from Parti Sarawak Bersatu and Parti Bumi Kenyalang.
Parti Sarawak Bersatu was dissolved in 2024 after approval from the Registrar of Societies, with its members joining the Progressive Democratic Party, a GPS component, en bloc.
Chin also said Parti Sarawak Bersatu’s absence could reshape the contest, although DAP’s prospects would depend on its choice of candidate and ability to mount a strong campaign.
He emphasised that DAP could win one seat in Sibu and potentially another elsewhere in Sarawak, bringing its total to four, but further gains would be difficult without a significant campaign mistake by GPS.
“It is between two and four. I do not envisage anything more than that.”
DAP won seven seats in the 2016 state election but retained only Padungan and Pending in 2021.
DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang blamed the losses on low voter turnout and split opposition votes, saying the party could have won five more seats, including Bukit Assek and Pelawan in Sibu.
GPS won 76 seats in the 2021 election. Following subsequent changes in party alignments, the current 82-seat assembly comprises 79 GPS representatives, two DAP assemblymen as well as one independent.
Chin described former PKR Batu Lintang assemblyman See Chee How, who was sacked from the party in 2020, as a “fake opposition” and a “covert member of GPS”.
He said See has to remain an independent until the state assembly is dissolved.
“The reality is that GPS controls 80 seats out of 82, not 79,” he said, counting See as aligned with GPS.
The Election Commission is reviewing Sarawak’s electoral boundaries to create 17 new state seats, increasing the total from 82 to 99.
However, its chairman Datuk Seri Ramlan Harun said the review is unlikely to be completed in time for the next state election, meaning the existing 82 seats are expected to be used.