If you own Jameson Williams or Jaylen Waddle in fantasy football, then I understand the frustration. They are WR39 and WR41, respectively. With top-20 hopes before the season started, the results haven't been pleasant. The good news is that the NFL is a week-to-week environment. A player can turn his season around in a blink. We hope to see that happen in Week 7. As for which wideout is the better play? I debate the following.
The Case of Jameson Williams
Williams has five games played on his 2026 resume. He averages 5.8 targets, 3.6 receptions, 55.2 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game. Williams averages 1.50 Yards per Route Run (NFL average: roughly 1.75), a 14.7% target share, 32% of air yards, and about a 90% snap rate.
In such a start-sit debate, I emphasize usage over projected output. As volatile as any NFL game might be, a high projection could easily miss. A team may not get the time of possession they expected; they may enter an unexpected game script, and that possession expectation can lead to a projection miss.
Thus, I favor projected offense volume as it plays safer in such a start-sit debate.
Williams isn't just playing 90% of the snaps; when he's on the field, he runs routes 97% of the time. In any passing situation, he goes out for a catch, not to block. He runs 11 more routes per game than the Lions' next wide receiver, Isaac Teslaa. He runs almost the exact same amount as Amon-Ra St. Brown and 4.0 more routes per game than Sam LaPorta.
Despite a weak target share, Williams has commendable volume. He should begin to see an uptick in fantasy production, as a 14.7% target share is unlikely to hold up given his playing time.
Williams is competing against the Green Bay Packers. Their defense ranks 13th-best in Yards per Target Allowed to outside wide receivers like Williams. His slot rate is just 24%.
The Packers play zone coverage at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL (75%). That bodes well for Williams, who averages 1.93 PPR Fantasy Points per Target against zone and 1.20 against man coverage.
The Case of Jaylen Waddle
Waddle has played six games in 2026. He averages 6.3 targets, 3.7 receptions, 38.0 yards, and 0.17 touchdowns per game. Waddle averages 1.49 Yards per Route Run on a 19.0% target share, 38.0% of air yards, and a 79% snap share.
On Waddle's passing snaps, he runs a route 91% of the time. He ranks second on the Broncos in routes run per game, 2.9 fewer than Courtland Sutton. Waddle runs nearly double the routes, twice as many as any other wide receiver on the team.
The season isn't much a fault of Waddle's; it's the Broncos' and Bo Nix's. Waddle has a career yards-per-reception of 13.4, and just 10.4 in 2026 because of Nix's checkdown-heavy philosophy this season. Added to the lower total, Waddle still has a 59% catch rate.
Waddle will compete against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. They rank 2nd-worst in Yards per Target Allowed to Wide Receivers (9.9), only behind the Jacksonville Jaguars. Waddle plays a mix of routes from the slot and outside.
The good news for Waddle is that the Cardinals play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, 45%. Waddle averages 0.86 more Yards per route run (2.31) versus man coverage. However, he is good against either coverage for the most part.
Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Jameson Williams or Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle is ultimately the sharper play of the two. Though Williams has a slightly higher snap rate, he has had less pass volume and a smaller share to date. Waddle has the better coverage matchup and has better per-route statistics. Neither player has more than three red zone targets this season, so err on the side of volume rather than banking on touchdown(s).
My Week 7 projection has Waddle currently as currently lists Waddle WR23 as of Friday afternoon. Williams comes in as the WR29. Williams is the boom-or-bust player in this scenario, averaging 15.3 Yards per Reception and, this season, with four receptions, twice having two or fewer.
In Week 7, Waddle is a capable, must-start WR2 with lower-end upside. Williams is also worth starting, given his snap share, but he's more of a WR3/Flex play.
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