Several provinces in CALABARZON and MIMAROPA could face meteorological drought by January 2027 as below-normal rainfall conditions are expected to spread across the country, according to the latest six-month outlook of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
In its drought and dry spell assessment issued on 1 October 2026, PAGASA identified Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Quezon and Romblon among the provinces that could experience dry conditions by the end of October.
The outlook indicates that rainfall shortages may intensify in the succeeding months, potentially affecting agricultural production and water availability in several parts of Southern Luzon.
By November, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal are projected to experience dry conditions, while Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Quezon and Romblon could progress to dry spells.
PAGASA defines a dry spell as three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall or two consecutive months of rainfall more than 60 percent below average.
The situation could worsen by December, when Marinduque and Oriental Mindoro are projected to reach meteorological drought conditions.
Meanwhile, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon and Rizal are expected to experience dry spells, alongside Occidental Mindoro, Palawan and Romblon.
By January 2027, all five CALABARZON provinces — Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon — are included in the drought outlook.
In MIMAROPA, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan and Romblon are likewise projected to experience drought conditions.
Metro Manila is also among the areas potentially affected.
Under PAGASA's classification, meteorological drought occurs when an area experiences three consecutive months of rainfall more than 60 percent below normal or five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall.
The weather bureau's projections indicate that the potential drought could become more widespread nationwide during the first quarter of 2027.
The number of areas classified as potentially experiencing drought is forecast to increase from six by the end of October to 17 by December, 45 by January, 78 by February and 84 by March.
The March outlook identifies 39 areas in Luzon, 16 in the Visayas and 29 in Mindanao as potentially experiencing drought.
The assessment was based on rainfall observations through September 2026 and the latest six-month rainfall forecast.
The projections represent potential meteorological conditions rather than confirmed drought declarations. Actual conditions will depend on rainfall patterns in the coming months.
The outlook provides an early indication of possible rainfall shortages that could affect farming communities, irrigation requirements and local water resources, particularly in agriculture-dependent provinces across CALABARZON and MIMAROPA.
Stay informed
Get Daily Tribune in your inbox
Breaking news, opinion, and business coverage for readers in the Philippines and abroad.
Subscribe to the newsletterPrefer chat alerts? Join the Daily Tribune Viber community.