Betting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election. The prediction comes as massive nationwide protests over the cost of living woes continue to roil France.
Since the protests began, Kalshi trading activity over who will be the next French president has intensified.
The odds of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, whom US President Donald Trump hailed as France's "conservative voice", winning the 2027 French presidential election jumped to over 50 percent from 39 percent in the last month.
She set a new all-time-high on October 20, when she became the most favoured candidate to win the next French Presidential election with a 53 percent chance, according to Kalshi politics.
On Kalshi, 'Yes' for Marine Le Pen traded at 54 cents as of Thursday (IST), followed by 16 cents for Édouard Philippe and 11 cents for David Lisnard.
As of 9 am on Thursday (October 22), the market believes there is a 54 percent chance that Pen will win the polls. Pen took a massive lead over Philippe around July 8. Ever since, her odds to win the next election have been soaring.
View full Image
On September 26, just days after the protests began, speculators placed a 44.7 percent chance that David Lisnard, the current mayor of Cannes, would become the country’s next president. Those odds came in just a day after he held a major campaign rally for the presidential race.
Polymarket odds: current standing for 2027
Traders priced Marine Le Pen at 48.3 percent to win the April 18, 2027 election, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 20 percent, David Lisnard at 11.8%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 10%.
Le Pen is priced at 90 percent to reach the second round. The probability that President Macron leaves office before December 31, 2026 is 4 percent.
These Polymarket odds reflect market sentiment and do not constitute a forecast. Prediction markets do not create crypto assets or set crypto prices.
The French presidential election will be held on April 18, 2027.
Who is Marine Le Pen?
Marine Le Pen, 58, is a member of the French National Assembly and was the president of the National Front (FN), a far-right political party in France.
She holds Masters of Laws and Master of Advanced Studies degrees from the Pantheon-Assas University.
She was convicted of graft by a French court in March 2025. She was initially banned from politics for five years, but an appeals court this year paved the way for her to run in the 2027 election to succeed President Emmanuel Macron.
According to the Associated Press, Marine Le Pen, seen as the favourite in next year's election, has sought to turn anger over the riots into support for her presidential bid, presenting herself as the alternative to a government she described as powerless.
She has repeatedly criticised the escalating civil unrest, cementing it as a key message in her campaign and arguing that leadership under Emmanuel Macron’s centrist government has contributed to the conditions behind the protests.
“We are facing a state that is collapsing,” Le Pen told broadcaster FranceInfo on Wednesday. “We are facing a government in its final days that has, in reality, lost its grip and can no longer maintain control,” she said, blaming the violence on “far-left rioters” and “looters from the suburbs.”
In a post on social media platform X, on October 18, following some of the country’s worst unrest in years, she said, “You saw yesterday our cities, our streets, our country, battered, mistreated, ransacked."
“We are living through a profound crisis of trust, of authority that poses a threat to democracy. This observation must alert us: our country is caught in a vise, or even taken hostage, between violence and powerlessness,” Le Pen added.
France riots overshadow Macron’s final months in office
Emmanuel Macron, a centrist, entered the final stretch of his decade-long presidency as France faces a wave of intense protests, with little sign he can prevent a candidate from the political extremes from succeeding him.
Constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term, the centre-right president entered the crisis with his popularity at its lowest since he took office in 2017 — below even the levels recorded during the “yellow vest” protests against social injustice and inequality that began in 2018, the Associated Press reported.
France is wrestling with a multitude of crises including high public debt, anger over soaring prices and the rise of the far right. The unrest on Saturday (October 17) broke out after around half a million people turned out across France to denounce the cost of living, following four weeks of school protests.
Violence erupted on the sidelines of demonstrations on October 17, prompting authorities to impose localised curfews in parts of Paris and other cities, including Lille, Lyon and Nice. Marseille also imposed restrictions on gatherings and demonstrations.
On Tuesday, the government scheduled another series of emergency meetings, including talks involving representatives of major social media platforms. Talks with trade unions were scheduled for Wednesday.
According to media reports, more than 2,400 people were arrested during the weekend unrest, while nearly 1,000 police officers were injured. Some demonstrators were seriously injured. In the eastern city of Mulhouse, a 17-year-old girl lost an eye. In Saint-Etienne, a 17-year-old boy had his hand blown off by a grenade, AFP reported
More protests ahead
France's main student union and the 'Yellow Vest' movement, a grassroots protest movement whose agitations over fuel prices shook the country in 2018 and 2019, have called for rallies on Saturday.
Trade unions have also announced a strike on November 5 over the cost of living and cuts to public services.