The job market could look different after November's midterm elections, but how much it changes could depend significantly on which party ends up controlling each chamber of Congress.
Americans will vote on November 3, and for many, the weakening labor market is top of mind. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The slow employment growth is just one of many reasons the economy is at the center of the midterms.
An October Pew Research Center survey found 84 percent of registered voters said the economy was "very important" to their vote, making it the highest-ranked issue included in the poll.
However, the effects of the election could play out very differently depending on whether Republicans maintain control of both chambers or Democrats win the House, Senate or both.
“There could very well be a highly significant, positive change in both the strength of our nation's economy and in the status of the job market overall if the midterm elections reflect a change in the majority parties in either the House or the Senate,” William Hall, a political science and business professor at Webster University, told Newsweek.
Why It Matters
The question of the job market post-election comes at a particularly uncertain moment for American workers.
In September, 7.1 million Americans were unemployed, while 1.9 million had been jobless for 27 weeks or longer. The labor force participation rate was 61.8 percent.
And September's 29,000 payroll gain was also considerably weaker than August's revised gain of 133,000.
However, the slowdown has not affected all industries equally. Health care added 17,000 jobs in September, construction added 11,000 and manufacturing gained 9,000. But at the same time, information employment fell by 10,000, professional and business services lost 9,000 positions and financial activities lost 7,000.
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What To Know
The employer and employee confidence levels could look very different under a Republican win versus a Democrat win, according to Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com.
“It's a confidence thing more than anything else,” Ryan told Newsweek. “The midterms could change employers' confidence, but I wouldn't expect either party winning to suddenly open the hiring floodgates.”
If Republicans keep Congress, there's more room to advance the administration’s tax, spending and regulatory priorities, Ryan said.
“If Democrats take both chambers, they can push different priorities, but Trump still holds the veto,” he added.
“A split Congress could mean more budget negotiations and stalled legislation. None of those outcomes guarantees more jobs.”
If Republicans Keep Control of the House and Senate
A Republican victory in both chambers would give President Donald Trump the greatest opportunity of the four scenarios to continue his domestic agenda through Congress.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, continued Republican control would create more room for additional tax cuts as well as changes to the Affordable Care Act and immigration restrictions. But trade restrictions would likely continue.
For workers, the effects would likely depend on their specific sector rather than an across-the-board surge or decline in jobs.
“If Republicans retain control of Congress, workers should expect more of the same economic policies, and probably expect things to get worse,” HR consultant Bryan Driscoll told Newsweek.
“But let's not pretend Democrats are some great labor party. They've had opportunities to make meaningful changes for working people and haven't frequently delivered. Promising to stand with workers is easy. Standing up to corporate donors and actually doing something about wages, healthcare, and workers' rights is another matter entirely. “
Energy and infrastructure are the major industries to watch, particularly as new data centers increase electricity demand. Technology companies and businesses investing heavily in AI could also be affected by policies governing data centers and AI development.
Immigration policy would be another variable. Stricter immigration rules can affect the supply of workers in certain industries. Skilled immigration restrictions could also affect the tech sector.
“It is tough to say, as the data center boom has been a significant driver of economic growth and job creation, particularly in construction and skilled trades,” Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek.
“Democrats have led the charge against data centers, and now we have Republicans jumping on board, claiming we need to slow down their expansion. The question is, are these conversations simply an attempt to gain votes, or are politicians truly willing to slow down an industry that has contributed significantly to economic growth?”
If Democrats Control the Senate
A Democratic Senate combined with a Republican House would likely mean legislative gridlock on many major economic proposals.
The CHRO Association said that a Democratic takeover of the Senate could put Bernie Sanders in charge of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. This could lead to renewed momentum for labor law proposals backed by Sanders.
The Senate would also have considerable influence over executive and judicial confirmations.
For the overall job market, however, the immediate effect could be minimal because a Democratic Senate and Republican House would make major new legislation difficult.
“A divided Congress would likely mean more political fighting and fewer major legislative changes,” Driscoll said. “That could constrain parts of Trump's agenda but it wouldn't automatically improve hiring or paychecks.”
If Democrats Control the House and Senate
Winning both chambers would give Democrats significantly more power over federal spending and legislation, but it would not give them unified control of Washington.
Trump would remain president and maintain his veto authority.
Still, Hall said the impact of the “current highly damaging economic policies on both the nation's economy and job market” could also be “significantly lessened.” Hall specifically referenced tariffs and the funding of the Iran War.
Ultimately, employment changes would depend on which policies survived negotiations with the White House, rather than simply which party held congressional control.
Ryan said much of this wouldn’t actually affect the larger issues facing job seekers and those who have been battling unemployment.
“The unemployment rate tells us how many people are looking for work,” Ryan said. It doesn't tell us how financially painful that search has become. And no matter who wins in November, employers will still be making hiring decisions based on sales, costs, interest rates and increasingly, AI.”
If Democrats Control the House
A Democratic takeover of the House with Republicans retaining the Senate could be the outcome most associated with gridlock rather than any major change in employment policy.
S&P Global said a Democratic House combined with a Republican Senate would likely intensify legislative gridlock, but bipartisan agreements could remain possible.
“Legislative gridlock would likely intensify as Democrats use congressional control to block Republican priorities, pursue oversight, and test the limits of the administration’s executive authority,” S&P Global analyst John Raines wrote in a September blog post. “Bipartisan agreement would still be possible in areas such as infrastructure, data centers, artificial intelligence policy and certain healthcare measures.”
A Democratic House could also use committee hearings and investigations to scrutinize the Trump administration's policies.
Still, the president would still be able to push his agenda through his executive powers, especially when it comes to trade.
“A split Congress would likely lead to legislative gridlock, with both parties eventually having to find some form of compromise across the aisle,” Thompson said.
Which Industries Could See the Biggest Impact?
Several industries are especially exposed to policies that could change depending on who has congressional control
In the energy sector, Republican control could favor continued fossil fuel development and power infrastructure expansion, while Democrats would likely increase support for wind and solar incentives.
In tech, data center construction and AI investment are top of mind, and the congressional debates over AI regulation could be monumental.
“For those looking for a first or new job, the stakes are particularly high because unemployment remains relatively low despite slower hiring, and regardless of which party controls Congress, Americans will be hoping for policies that translate economic growth into more available jobs, higher wages, affordable benefits, and substantial opportunities to advance their careers,” Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor at the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek.
What Happens Next
The midterms take place November 3, and the new Congress will take office in January.
Driscoll said the issue is bigger than whether unemployment ticks up or down.
“Workers need jobs that actually pay the bills, affordable healthcare not tied to work, and some bargaining power,” Driscoll said, adding that he’s tired of an economy that “looks great on paper” while working people are “struggling even more.”
“The question after November 3 isn't which party can take credit for the economy. They both will if it's good and they'll both pass the buck if the downward trend continues. The big question is whether anyone in Washington is willing to put their neck on the line to make it work for the people who actually keep the economy running.”
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas