Liquidity surge fuels rally in low-cap stocks

As the Nigerian stock market closed out the first three quarters of 2026, a powerful wave of capital reshaped market dynamics. Rather than remaining concentrated in mega-cap safe havens, excess liquidity actively spilled over into the market’s most dynamic corners.

This fresh wave of funding ignited sharp, speculative rallies across low-cap equities, catching the attention of traders and investors alike. For many active investors, the liquidity shift during the nine months leading up to September 30 presented a high-stakes window of opportunity and a critical test of risk management as valuations outpaced traditional fundamentals.

Interestingly, while heavyweight blue-chip stocks and traditional market bellwethers typically command the spotlight, the past nine months inverted conventional wisdom.

Agile, lesser-known smaller companies across the agro-allied, industrial, and service sectors surged past their large-cap counterparts, delivering phenomenal rallies. This remarkable outperformance signals a profound structural shift in investor appetite: moving away from safety-first stagnation toward aggressive growth, tactical turnaround plays, and an unyielding hunt for alpha in Nigeria’s vibrant financial ecosystem.

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BusinessDay’s analytical breakdown of 138 stocks for the nine months ending in September reveals 91 gainers, 46 losers, and 1 flat stock, highlighting a broad-based yet highly selective bull market structure.

The most striking feature of the nine-month data is the extreme performance of specific low-cap equities, led by Zichis (+900 percent), Fortis Global Insurance (+805 percent), and SCOA (+365.49 percent). This illustrates a market environment where liquidity cascades into low-free-float stocks, creating speculative rewards for agile, risk-on portfolios.

At the same time, Tier-1 banking counters demonstrated strong defensive resilience. Core financial institutions like First Holdco (+233.82 percent) and Zenith Bank (+116.83 percent) proved that fundamental earnings strength and robust balance sheet optimisation could comfortably outpace inflation.

Conversely, high-profile consumer goods manufacturers such as Nestlé Nigeria (-48.11 percent) and Austinlaz (-48.24 percent) underscored the severe impact of foreign exchange volatility, high borrowing costs, and compressed consumer purchasing power on corporate bottom lines.

In the first nine months of 2026, the Nigerian Exchange Limited All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) recorded a year-to-date (YtD) return of 61.43 percent. The index rose significantly, closing at 251,211.67 basis points on September 30, 2026, as against 153,539.83 basis points at the beginning of the year.

Also, total market capitalisation surged by approximately N63.73 trillion (64.13 percent increase), moving from N99.376 trillion at the start of the year to close the nine-month period at N163.105 trillion.

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First Holdco (+233.82%), Zenith Bank (+116.83 %) led financial services and banking

The banking and financial services sector remained a primary institutional battleground, characterised by stellar Tier-1 resilience and aggressive rallies among select financial holding companies.

Gainers: First Holdco (+233.82 percent), Zenith Bank (+116.83 percent), Jaizbank (+78.02 percent), Stanbic (+63 percent), ETI (+62.29 percent), Custodian (+62.79 percent), Wema Bank (+54.41 percent), Consolidated Hallmark (+64.06 percent), GTCO (+45.53 percent), Access Holdings (+44.76 percent), Fidelity Bank (+13.95 percent), UBA (+9.12 percent), Abbey Bank (+9.38 percent), NEM Insurance (+7.09 percent), Mutual Benefit (+0.97 percent), AIICO (+0.26 percent), Critical Minerals Financing Corporation (+127.37 percent), Fortis Global Insurance (+805 percent), NGX Group (+158.57 percent), NPF Microfinance Bank (+18.60 percent), and VfD Group (+31.82 percent).

Losers: FCMB (-4.98 percent), Cornestone Insurance (-6.04 percent), Guinea Insurance (-47.37 percent), LASACO (-27.76 percent), Linkage Assurance (-4.49 percent), AXA Mansard (-19.71 percent), Prestige Assurance (-12.66percent), Regency Alliance Insurance (-35.19 percent), Royal Exchange (-38.17 percent), Sovereign Trust Insurance (-42.41 percent), Sunu Assurances (-44 percent), Coronation Insurance (-27.38%), Veritas Kapital Assurance (-35.09 percent), Africa Prudential (-26.01 percent), AVA Capital (-24.67 percent), Living Trust Mortgage Bank (-8.99 percent), United Capital (-9.09 percent).

ZICHIS (+900%), SCOA (+365.49 %) led Industrial Goods, Construction and Agribusiness

Heavyweights and agricultural plays displayed massive value expansion, driven by infrastructure demand and defensive positioning.

Gainers: ZICHIS (+900 percent), SCOA (+365.49 percent), Berger Paints (+207.50 percent), Union Dicon (+244.20 percent), HBM Nigeria (+163.94 percent), Dangote Cement (+75.16 percent), BUA Cement (+66.39 percent), CAP (+44.93 percent), Beta Glass (+38.24 percent), Meyer (+23.17 percent), Vitafoam (+110.87 percent), NASCON (+75.72 percent), PZ Cussons (+66.18 percent), Unilever (+45.69 percent), Dangote Sugar (+13.33 percent), and Guiness Nigeria (+9.97 percent).

Other gainers are: Nigerian Breweries (+0.93 percent), Nigerian Enamelware (+0.49 percent), FTN Cocoa (+66 percent), Livestock Feeds (+33.88 percent), Okomu Oil Palm (+16.55 percent), Presco (+41.06 percent), UACN (+98.90 percent), Julius Berger (+103.27 percent), Chapel Hill Denham Nigeria Infrastructure Debt Fund (+28.43 percent), Fidson Healthcare (+69.66 percent), May & Baker (+106.32 percent), and Neimeth (+32.76 percent).

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Other major advancers in this sector are: NCR (+121.73 percent), Omatek (+28.32 percent), Multiverse (+43.82 percent), ABC Transport (+64.63 percent), Eunisell (+64.35 percent), Ikeja Hotel (+6.21 percent), Learn Africa (+16.79 percent), NAHCO (+38.89 percent), RedStar Express (+81.61 percent), RT Briscoe (+185.71 percent), Skyway Aviation Handling Company (+93.56 percent), Tantalizers (+56 percent), The Initiates (+104.51 percent), Trans Nationwide Express (+25.58 percent), and Transcorp Hotels (+69.98 percent).

Losers: Austinlaz (-48.24percent), Cutix (-25.81percent), BUA Foods (-4.79 percent), Cadbury (-0.67percent), Champion (-29.29 percent), Honeywell Flourmills (-17.81 percent), Nestle (-48.11 percent), Northern Nigeria Flourmill (-5.81 percent), Ellahlakes (-38.06 percent), Chellaram (-26.52 percent), Transcorp (-18.50 percent), Haldane McCall (-14.75 percent), UPDC (-23.47 percent), and Mecure (-13.80 percent).

Others are: Chams (-18.21 percent), Etranzact (+7.49 percent, Secure Electronic Technology (-9.21 percent), Trippleg (-47.29 percent), Legend Internet (-31 percent), IMG Nigeria (-12.50 percent), Transcorp Power (-42.02 percent), Academy Press (-30.14 percent), Caverton (-25 percent), C &I leasing (-19.71 percent), UPL (-21.67 percent).

Oil & Gas, ICT, Services and Conglomerates

Mixed operational realities defined the energy and technology space, balancing global commodity price shifts with domestic volume constraints.

Gainers: Seplat (+175.44 percent), Eterna (+54.39 percent), Japaul Gold (+25.54 percent), Conoil (+12.18 percent), CWG (+15.28 percent), Airtel Africa (+177.53 percent), Daarcomm (+61.29 percent), MTNN (+63.80 percent). Losers: Oando (-12.94 percent), Total (-19 percent), Geregu (-27.67 percent).