Early Takeaways and Analysis of Virginia Tech Basketball's Preseason KenPom Ranking

BLACKSBURG — College hoops is nearly back. Squads have engaged in closed- and open-door scrimmages, and the start of the 2026-27 regular season — the first with a 76-team March Madness — is nearly here.

One of the squads looking to break an NCAA Tournament drought is Virginia Tech men's basketball. The Hokies haven't cracked the March Madness field since the 2021-22 season, and they haven't done it via an at-large bid since the 2020-21 campaign. Virginia Tech went 19-13 (8-10 ACC) in 2025-26, with its season ending in the first round of the ACC Tournament via a 95-89 loss to Wake Forest.

Here's a quick look at the Hokies' records over the past five seasons:

• 2025-26 - 19-13 (8-10 ACC)
• 2024-25 - 13-19 (8-12 ACC)
• 2023-24 - 19-15 (10-10 ACC)
• 2022-23 - 19-15 (8-12 ACC)
• 2021-22 - 23-13 (11-9 ACC)

The Hokies enter this season ranked No. 52 on kenpom.com, a site run by college basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy earned an undergraduate degree in mechanical engineering at Virginia Tech in 1995. His metrics project a 21-11 (10-8 ACC) record for Virginia Tech entering the season. The Hokies' ranking of No. 52 is their fourth-highest preseason mark under eighth-year head coach Mike Young, trailing his 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24 units.

An Early Analysis of the Hokies' Schedule

Four of Virginia Tech's first five contests should be docile contests: Coppin State (99.7% win probability) on Nov. 3, Mercer (97%) on Nov. 5), Mount St. Mary's (98%) on Nov. 13 and Richmond (88%) on Nov. 16. The one that isn't? A netural-site clash with Iowa (46% probability; projected final score of 74-73 Iowa) on Nov. 10 in Sioux City, Iowa.

The Hawkeyes made it to the Elite Eight in the 2025-26 season for the first time since 1987 before losing to No. 3 Illinois. Along the way, Iowa defeated defending national champion Florida 74-73 in the second round. Iowa finished the year ranked No. 15 in the AP poll and enters this year ranked No. 46 on KenPom.

Virginia Tech's non-conference schedule features several other daunting tests, including games against Oklahoma State (46%) on Nov. 22 and West Virginia (30%) on Dec. 5. The Hokies also host Ole Miss (No. 38 on KenPom) in the ACC/SEC Challenge on Dec. 1.

Virginia Tech's favored on KenPom for 11 of its 14 non-conference games; the three outliers are Iowa, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia. Tech will play Oklahoma State at the Shriners Children's Charleston Classic in Charleston, S.C., an event where it'll also play against Northwestern (No. 89). Another neutral-site showdown it'll have to contend with comes against UCF (No. 57) on Dec. 19 in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. — a matchup that gives Tech a 55% chance (77-76 final score prediction) to win on KenPom.

Virginia Tech's in-conference schedule is one that'll feature plenty of air travel. The Hokies' road slate includes trips to Notre Dame, Florida State, California, Stanford, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech's two home-and-away opponents this year are the Eagles and Virginia. The Hokies are favored in 10 of their 18 non-conference clashes and hold at least a 40% win probability in every contest but one: Virginia on the road on Saturday, Jan. 30.

The Cavaliers are the second-highest-ranked team in the ACC on KenPom, clocking in at No. 15. The only team in the league that's higher is top-ranked Duke, which Virginia Tech won't play at all this season for the first time since 2005.

Virginia Tech opens its season on Tuesday, Nov. 3, at 7 p.m. ET against Coppin State. The game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.