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Arch Manning entered the 2026 college football season surrounded by enormous expectations, with many believing the Texas quarterback could emerge as one of the leading prospects in the 2027 NFL Draft.
However, an inconsistent start to the campaign has raised serious questions about his readiness for the professional level, and some analysts are already reconsidering his potential draft position.
President Trump wouldn’t miss the opportunity to watch Arch Manning against Tennessee
Among those expressing concerns is veteran NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay, who recently excluded Manning from his updated top 10 quarterback rankings for 2027.
"Arch Manning — Return. Explore a transfer? — There's still time to turn this season around. I'm more bullish on his NFL future than the social media doom suggests, but another college season currently looks like his best path," McShay wrote on X.
The criticism comes as Manning has struggled to establish consistent performances despite entering the season with considerable hype.
Through five games, he has completed 63 percent of his passes for 1,122 yards, recording 10 touchdowns against five interceptions.
Although those numbers aren't disastrous, they hardly reflect the dominance expected from a quarterback supposedly capable of becoming a top NFL draft selection.
His four-touchdown performance against Texas State has also helped boost his overall statistics, making his subsequent struggles more noticeable.
Manning's problems became particularly evident during Texas' 27-24 defeat to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
He threw two costly interceptions, including a pick-six, as the Longhorns suffered a disappointing defeat that intensified scrutiny surrounding their quarterback.
With several regular-season games remaining, Manning still has opportunities to change the narrative.
However, he'll need to demonstrate significant improvement if he hopes to restore confidence among scouts and analysts before making a decision about his professional future.
Family legacy increases the pressure on Manning
The pressure surrounding Manning extends beyond his performances on the field.
As a member of one of football's most recognizable families, he's constantly compared with relatives who've enjoyed distinguished NFL careers.
His grandfather, Archie Manning, entered the professional ranks after three college seasons, while his uncles Peyton and Eli each spent four years in college before beginning their NFL careers.
Both subsequently became Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, establishing standards that inevitably complicate expectations surrounding Arch.
Returning for another college season wouldn't necessarily damage Manning's long-term prospects. Additional development could help him refine his decision-making, improve his consistency and demonstrate greater composure under pressure.
Nevertheless, spending five seasons in college might feel like an unwelcome setback for a quarterback who's spent years being viewed as a future NFL star.
Manning's surname can only carry him so far. Professional scouts will judge him on his performances, development and ability to respond when adversity strikes.
A strong finish could quickly restore his draft momentum, while continued inconsistency might make another college season increasingly attractive.