Virtual dead heat between El-Sayed, Rogers, per Marist poll

(Oct. 21, 2026 / JNS)

The Senate race in Michigan is a virtual dead heat, with only two percentage points separating Democratic nominee Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director, and former Republican congressman Mike Rogers, well within the margin of error of the latest Marist College poll.

El-Sayed led Rogers among likely voters, 50% to 48%, in a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. In the governor’s race, Michigan secretary of state Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic nominee, leads Rep. John James (R-Mich.) 51% to 45%.

The Republican Jewish Coalition has called El-Sayed “the most antisemitic U.S. Senate candidate in America.”

El-Sayed still received the support of 95% of Democrats, just as Rogers had the backing of 95% of Republicans. Among independents, El-Sayed led by 50% to 44%.

More than four in 10 likely voters in the midterm elections, 44%, said that they were going to the polls primarily to oppose U.S. President Donald Trump, with 18% saying that they were voting for the president and 37% saying that their vote for Congress was not influenced very much by their views of the president.

Trump was in the red among likely voters, with 57% disapproving of his performance in office and 42% approving.

In addition, 43% said their personal finances have gotten worse in the last year—including almost one-fourth of Republicans—with only 16% saying that they have gotten better. Another 40% said that they have stayed the same.

Likely voters said they preferred a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican one by 52% to 46% in the so-called generic ballot. That includes 54% of independents.

The survey of 1,185 Michigan registered voters was conducted Oct. 15-18. A screen was used to identify likely voters in the sample.