Prior to the NFL season, I published an article on the preseason NFL power ranking for all 32 teams on Yahoo Sports. In that article, I explained how to use a ratings system to help price spreads, how to use it to action bets and what potential pitfalls in the process exist. I highly recommend reading that article to also lay the foundation for my NBA power ratings below.
Instead of retooling the same concepts into NBA terms, I am going to provide my ratings and then note which teams I see as potential risers and fallers once the NBA regular season action begins. These are currently built off of using NBA regular season win totals, title odds to differentiate teams with the same win total number, current state of injury news, and the first few regular season games we have priced. I then add some manual adjustment. The only major difference to note in using these instead of NFL is the change in home-court rating from 1.5 to 3 points from a neutral site.
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Here are my NBA preseason power ratings for all 30 NBA teams.
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | +8.1 |
2 | San Antonio Spurs | +7.4 |
3 | Boston Celtics | +4.8 |
4 | Detroit Pistons | +3.9 |
5 | New York Knicks | +3.9 |
6 | Houston Rockets | +3.7 |
7 | Philadelphia 76ers | +2.9 |
8 | Cleveland Cavaliers | +2.8 |
9 | Minnesota Timberwolves | +2.6 |
10 | Denver Nuggets | +2.4 |
11 | Los Angeles Lakers | +2.2 |
12 | Toronto Raptors | +2.2 |
13 | Miami Heat | +2.1 |
14 | Atlanta Hawks | +1.8 |
15 | Orlando Magic | +1.7 |
16 | Indiana Pacers | +1.1 |
17 | Phoenix Suns | +0.6 |
18 | Golden State Warriors | +0.2 |
19 | Portland Trailblazers | -0.3 |
20 | Charlotte Hornets | -0.5 |
21 | Utah Jazz | -1.4 |
22 | Dallas Mavericks | -2.5 |
23 | Washington Wizards | -3.2 |
24 | Memphis Grizzlies | -3.5 |
25 | Los Angeles Clippers | -3.6 |
26 | Chicago Bulls | -4.1 |
27 | New Orleans Pelicans | -4.1 |
28 | Brooklyn Nets | -6 |
29 | Milwaukee Bucks | -6.8 |
30 | Sacramento Kings | -7.5 |
Three potential risers
Houston Rockets
The Rockets were second in overall market rating last season prior to Steven Adams getting injured and missing the rest of the season. At the time, they were the No. 1 rebounding team, and the NBA’s best in 3-point shooting team. The latter might be surprising, but these concepts relate: Forcing opposing teams to crash the glass leaves perimeter shooters wide open for second chance points in catch and shoot threes with high shot quality. Not only do they Rockets get Adams back, but also Fred VanVleet and they added Marcus Smart. They are a no-brainer over 47.5 on the win total, a sneaky division winner long shot, and might be dangerous in the playoffs if they can stay healthy.
Utah Jazz
The trendiest offseason pick is the Jazz to surpass 36.5 regular season wins, and I don’t disagree. This is like fantasy football preseason Parker Washington buzz, and it instantly paying off. Utah is loaded with young talent and has an elite coach in Will Hardy who can put it all together. They have been waiting to step up into real competition for a few years, focused on rebuilding (and tanking), and now they can hit the gas pedal. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are the biggest riser this year and in short order being a top-10 team that doesn’t look back.
Dallas Mavericks
This is the hardest team to figure out. A new head coach, Kyrie Irving coming back, Derrick Lively still hurt but getting healthier and Cooper Flagg — who might be an All-Star starter and All-NBA player, or might need another year of development. In full transparency, I took Flagg to win most improved player at 100-1 odds and the win total under 34.5, so am I flummoxed which way this goes. But Dallas the tools to quickly rise. If Flagg completely pops, if Irving and Lively are healthy and if coach Dusty May is an upgrade from Jason Kidd, I wouldn't be surprised if they are league average and locked into a play-in bid. Right now, they are marketably below average.
Three potential fallers
Denver Nuggets
The lifting Nikola Jokic has to do exceeds any other player in the NBA by a mile. The potential problem is if Jokic's efficiency drops like it did last season at the midway point and into the playoffs. Both Jokic’s 3-point percentage and finishing around the rim fell off, and his defense remains a problem. Aaron Gordon lost a step athletically, so did Jamal Murray and Peyton Watson is no longer on the team. Less depth and waning star power could cause a drop off.
Portland Trail Blazers
Last season, this team thrived by putting intense pressure on the ball, moving in transition and generating free throws. This year the league-mandated referee initiatives to call more offensive fouls on illegal screens and push offs could hurt Portland more than other teams. They also lost their coach, some of the back-of-house staff and a few players that fit very well, like Matisse Thybulle.
They added Ja Morant and return Damian Lillard, who are good additions but don’t fit the way they play. I don’t view new head coach Micah Nori that highly, and he may struggle to put it all together cohesively.
Brooklyn Nets
There is one team actually incentivized to tank this season, and it’s the Nets. They owe the Houston Rockets their first-round pick and if it lands No. 1, they lose the right to draft No. 1 the following year even without keep the pick this year. Therefore, it might make sense to finish bottom three in the “relegation zone”, where they reduce the chance of landing the first pick. For that reason, they may play worse lineup combinations, they may trade Michael Porter Jr or Julius Randle and they may be a lone team that gets significantly worse this season (although they are saying otherwise publicly at the moment).