MANILA, Philippines – Ten years after the Kidapawan protests, the unrest remains a reminder of what happens when severe El Niño pushes farmers and communities to the brink.

The bloodshed that transpired on April 1, 2016, was briefly mentioned in the almost two-hour press conference of representatives of United Nations agencies and the Philippine government. Officials emphasized that with a great deal of preparation, the strong El Niño need not result in a humanitarian crisis.

“The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) is mandated to ensure that if ever that happens we are still able to manage the situation before we allow the military to take in,” said Jose Harry Barber on Thursday, October 22.

But there are no red flags yet of civil unrest, said Barber. Anticipating such is only part of “template planning.”

“During the 2016 El Niño, [there was a] Kidapawan civil unrest,” added Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, to reporters’ queries on the gravity of the situation and possible worst-case scenarios.

“That was quite difficult because of El Niño during that time,” said Solis. “It was also one of the strong El Nino episodes.”

The government warned of “intensifying very strong El Niño” that will persist midway through 2027. Already, agricultural losses reached P8.57 billion due to El Niño. Over 200,000 farmers are currently affected.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said during the Senate budget hearing on October 21 they were expecting agricultural damage to hit P20 billion. Up to 4.6 million farmers and fisherfolk may be affected, according to Tiu Laurel. (READ: Food supply sufficient for Super El Niño, P45-B aid coming for farmers – DA)

In early October, farmers camped outside the Department of Agrarian Reform with an array of demands, among them, support for the worse months ahead due to a very strong El Niño. Journalist Ernest Cruz, who was covering the campout, was assaulted by police.

“Our message today is that climate shocks do not have to become a humanitarian crisis,” Tristan Burnett of the International Organisation for Migration told reporters. “We have the science, we have the forecasts, we have the knowledge, and we have the tools to act early.”

An imminent disaster

More than a hundred towns and provinces across the country already declared a state of calamity. Nine provinces are already experiencing drought, according to PAGASA.

There is now a call to declare an imminent disaster supposedly to open up funds for anticipatory action.

During the hearing on the Department of Agriculture’s budget, Senator Francis Pangilinan and Tiu Laurel were in agreement that a declaration of sorts is needed.

A state of imminent disaster is declared before the disaster or impact occurs, based on forecasts and data on previous experience (as opposed to a state of calamity where it is declared after the fact).

As such, funds would be disbursed ahead of the anticipated disaster to help communities prepare.

The hitch comes from unfinished operational guidelines of the law that backs such declaration. It was only last September that government agencies tried to develop drought triggers, according to Solis, following the recent release of the law’s implementing rules and regulations.

“We have to work hard with these triggers and thresholds, and when to activate, when is the readiness, and activate [anticipatory action] at the ground,” said Solis. “There’s still ongoing effort with the national government.”

The timing of release of funds is crucial in planning and responding to severe climate shocks.

“Unfortunately, this El Nino event is coming at a time where perhaps that setup is not fully established,” said Regis Chapman of the World Food Programme Philippines in the same briefing.

Ten years ago, farmers and indigenous people blocked the Davao-Cotabato Highway in Kidapawan City demanding the release of calamity funds and rice stocks. It ended in bloodshed – two protesters were killed.

‘Balde’ and what science says

The World Meteorological Organization has sounded the alarm that El Niño may reach unprecedented strength by December, according to its latest report. It is not the strongest on record but stronger than the historic 2015-2016 El Niño that pushed farmers to march to the streets and protest in Kidapawan. The ongoing El Niño now could be “literally off the monitoring charts.”

For the Philippines this may mean higher heat index than previously recorded, more farms ravaged, and water stress.

Tiu Laurel said the country needs P1.2 trillion to irrigate farmlands across the country and P50 billion more for post-harvest facilities and mechanization.

Expecting less rainfall, the government is urging people to conserve water while supply is still stable.

“This is part of anticipatory [action] wherein we need to properly manage our water and properly use our water,” said Solis. “That’s why balde (bucket) is totoo (real). We still have rain so we need to catch the rain using our balde.”

The reference to “balde” stems from public criticisms against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s advice collect rainwater in buckets. Social Welfare Secretary Rex Gatchalian has also demonstrated the use of a water filtration system using plain, old buckets.

The environment department estimated 34% of barangays nationwide as priority intervention zones for water supply.

– Rappler.com