Azerbaijan's public debt projected to reach 20.4% of GDP by 2030

Photo: Bank of Lithuania

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Azerbaijan's total public debt is projected to reach 34.5 billion manat ($20.2 billion) by the end of 2030, equivalent to 20.4% of GDP.

The forecast is outlined in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework prepared by the Ministry of Finance for the next four years.

According to the document, Azerbaijan's total external and domestic public debt is expected to reach 27 billion manat ($15.8 billion), or 19.5% of projected GDP, by the end of 2026.

As of January 1, 2026, public debt stood at 20.1% of GDP. This was 9.9 percentage points below the upper limit for the public debt-to-GDP ratio set for the medium term under the fiscal rule.

Last year, Azerbaijan achieved the targets set out in the updated 2022-2025 framework for its Medium- and Long-Term Public Debt Management Strategy, which called for keeping public debt below 30% of GDP and external public debt below $10 billion.

The document states that, in line with the public debt management strategy, measures have been taken to gradually reduce the share of external debt in total public debt and replace it with domestic borrowing. At the same time, financing the state budget deficit through government securities issued on the domestic financial market has led to a significant increase in domestic public debt.

In 2026, the government plans to borrow through government securities issued on the domestic financial market and by financing projects with funds from international financial institutions.

This includes attracting loans in cooperation with international financial institutions to finance priority projects under approved government programs in the water and transport sectors.

According to forecasts, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will stand at 20.4% at the end of the medium-term period covering 2027-2030. The indicator will be monitored as part of efforts to manage public debt and maintain fiscal sustainability.