Twice last month, President Donald Trump had turned down his Saudi friend and ally Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s pleas to bomb Yemen’s Houthis; they were attacking oil fields and had seized control of key areas along the Red Sea shipping route.
Then, on Saturday, a Houthi missile struck a passenger terminal at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport. It killed 13 people, an American among them, and wounded more than 300, in a dramatic escalation of the Iranian-backed militants’ conflict with Saudi Arabia.
Asked whether the U.S. would now join the Saudi strikes, Trump left the door wide open: "We may. We’re going to look at it." Another deadly strike hit the airport Sunday, leaving Saudis scrambling for answers on how and why their air defenses failed.
The question looks like one on Yemen, but the answer will be about Iran: what happens to a stalled war after the November 3 midterms, and who pays to defend the Gulf.
1. Trump Demurs, Stays Focused on Iran
This is a path Trump has already walked. In September, when MBS came calling, Trump gave Riyadh intelligence and targeting data instead of bombs. Officials told the Saudis his directive was to keep U.S. forces focused on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthis then assured American diplomats in Muscat that Bab el-Mandeb, a vital alternative route to Hormuz, would stay open to all but Saudi vessels.
Restraint would also spare Trump a new front three weeks before the midterms, with 65 percent of Americans disapproving of his handling of the Iran war, per Pew this month.
Washington would instead rush interceptors to a kingdom whose officials say it is running low, after the Iranian attacks at the height of the present war, though the Pentagon’s Patriot stocks are already stretched.
The cost in this scenario is that Riyadh keeps bearing the brunt of the Houthi barrages, and the Houthis learn they can do so—including killing an American—without drawing U.S. fire.
2. Limited Strikes, a Deal, and a Handoff
Trump has run this particular play before. In 2025, he bombed the Houthis for several weeks, declared they had "capitulated," and accepted an Oman-brokered truce sparing U.S. ships.
A sequel to that would pair limited but punitive strikes on missile sites behind the Riyadh attacks with a corresponding diplomatic push, via Oman, to pause Houthi fire on the kingdom.
Then might follow the handoff. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca in August and agreed last week to the "rapid deployment" of forces to the kingdom, though Turkey rules out an offensive role.
That fits what a senior Trump administration official had called "empowering our regional partners to take the lead" in comments to Axios last month.
The weak link here is the deal. The Houthis vowed to keep hitting the kingdom until Saudi strikes and what they call a blockade end. A pause would ask Riyadh to halt an offensive against the Houthis that is barely a week old.
3. Full Strikes, Folded Into the Iran War
The maximalist option here treats Yemen as another front in the Iran war. Sources told Reuters last month that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards guided the Houthis’ Red Sea offensive and that Tehran urged the group to escalate against Saudi Arabia. Iran denies involvement.
A sustained campaign against Houthi missile, drone, and command sites would honor the letter of Trump’s vow not to attack Iran before November 3, if not its spirit. Asked Saturday whether the airport strike altered that vow, Trump said: "We’re gonna take a look."
The bigger prize here is Saudi Arabia. Washington needs Saudi airspace to resume major combat against Iran, a step Riyadh lobbied against in August. Defending the kingdom now would be a down payment on that access—perhaps even on Saudi jets joining in.
The catch, of course, is that Iran could answer on Saudi oil fields and with strikes on its major cities, an escalatory outcome Riyadh has doggedly sought to avoid since February 28. The Houthis could also try to close Bab el-Mandeb, another blow to energy markets.
Two Chokepoints, One War
The stakes reach well beyond Yemen. Since the war choked Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has leaned on a pipeline to its Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The route from there to Asian buyers runs past Bab el-Mandeb, where Saudi-backed forces are battling to reverse a Houthi advance. Brent crude topped $105 on Monday.
The Iran war, now in its eighth month, is stalled rather than settled. A U.S. blockade of Iranian ports grinds on, talks run through mediators, and Trump has promised no new strikes on Iran before the midterms—but a return to full war is still on the cards.
Whatever comes next may be decided first in Yemen.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.