For myriad obvious reasons, President Donald Trump has so far resisted calls from Saudi Arabia to assist in its fight with the Houthis, even as the militant group has been striking — literally — at the heart of the Kingdom's oil and tourism industries all week.
First, the U.S. can hardly afford another front in its current Middle East war. We know Pentagon munitions stockpiles are depleted, and our main asset in the region, the U.S. Navy, is stretched thin trying to manage its blockade against Iran and helping to shuttle non-sanctioned shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (which is not going as well as the White House was boasting a week ago).
Second, politically, Trump cannot afford to launch another war ahead of the midterms, especially if it is not guaranteed to be successful. His first escalation against the Houthis in 2025 failed, and he was forced to call a ceasefire. The Yemeni resistance group, also known as Ansar Allah, has only gotten stronger since.
But the pressure is on, and Annelle Sheline, research fellow at the Quincy Institute's Middle East program, says it is likely that Trump will be forced to get involved sooner than later.
"Part of why we've seen the Trump administration not give in to Mohammed bin Salman's request to engage directly in attacking Ansar Allah inside Yemen is because the Saudis kicked the Emiratis out of Yemen last January," Sheline told me this morning, referring to remnants of the two nation's joint involvement in the first Yemeni Civil War. "The U.S. is very closely aligned with the UAE, which is obviously very closely aligned with Israel, and so there's a sense from the administration that the Saudis made their bed and now they need to lie in it. But that does imply that after Trump feels that the Saudis have been made to suffer, then he will get involved more directly."
Perhaps even more urgently, MBS may put on the table all of its investments in the U.S. that Trump had only been touting a year ago when he did his much ballyhooed tour of the Middle East. At the time he said he got pledges for $1 trillion from the region, including $600 billion from Saudi Arabia. A $142 billion arms deal was also announced at the time.
"Just given how we know things work in Washington, there are obviously many pressures from the U.S. defense industry, from the the fact that Mohammed bin Salman has personally enriched Trump and his family, including Jared Kushner's various expensive endeavors," Sheline said, noting the president's son-in-law's close investment ties with the Kingdom, which are now a focus of a congressional investigation.
"So I don't think it will be too long before Mohammed bin Salman says to Donald Trump, 'Look, I'm not going to ask again if if you don't assist us. We're going to have to reconsider investments in the United States. We're going to have to reconsider investments in in your family, in the Trump brand,' and I imagine that may hit Trump a little closer to home."
The Quincy Institute's Trita Parsi said he agrees the U.S. lurch in defense of Saudi Arabia is likely, but thinks Trump may wait for the midterms. "I think Trump's preference is for it to happen afterwards. But it may not be under his control if he sees further escalation by Iran or the Houthis," he told me.
It is definitely on the president's mind. In response to a direct question of involvement on Sunday he said, "We're gonna look at it … We'll make a decision. We move very quickly."
On Tuesday he said the Houthis were "behaving very badly" and blamed the group for attacking Saudi Arabia to purposely spike oil prices before the midterms. Meanwhile, CBS News speculated that the death of an American in the Houthi attack on Riyadh's biggest airport on Saturday, "may increase pressure on Mr. Trump to retaliate."