MANILA, Philippines – Super Typhoon Rosal (Champi) weakened further while moving east of Batanes before dawn on Thursday, October 22, but it remains a powerful tropical cyclone.
In a bulletin issued at 5 am on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Rosal’s maximum sustained winds slightly decreased from 205 kilometers per hour to 195 km/h. Its gustiness eased from 250 km/h to 240 km/h.
At its peak, Rosal had maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h. PAGASA’s latest forecast shows it is likely to be downgraded to a typhoon on Thursday.
As of 4 am, Rosal was already 495 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, moving northwest at 20 km/h.
It remains unlikely to make landfall in the Philippines, but it will be closest to extreme Northern Luzon between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, October 23.
On Thursday, moderate to intense rain may hit at least three provinces in Northern Luzon. Here is the weather bureau’s updated rainfall outlook for the next 48 hours, also released at 5 am:
Thursday, October 22
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Batanes
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan, Apayao
Friday, October 23
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan
Aside from the provinces mentioned above, Ilocos Norte and Isabela are also likely to have rain with gusty winds from Rosal on Thursday.
The rest of Cagayan Valley, the rest of the Cordillera Administrative Region, Bicol, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Aurora, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar may have scattered rain and thunderstorms as well, still due to the super typhoon.
PAGASA added that Rosal’s trough or extension might cause scattered rain and thunderstorms in the Zamboanga Peninsula, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Palawan.
Winds from the super typhoon are already reaching portions of Northern Luzon, too. Tropical cyclone wind signals are in effect in the following areas as of 5 am on Thursday:
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- Batanes
- northeastern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- rest of Babuyan Islands
- mainland Cagayan
- eastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, Santa Maria, Cabagan, Delfin Albano, Santo Tomas, Tumauini, San Pablo, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Dinapigue)
- Ilocos Norte
- Apayao
Signal No. 3 could be raised in Batanes, unless Rosal’s track shifts further north northwest.
The northeasterly windflow and the periphery or outer bands of the super typhoon will also bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following areas:
Thursday, October 22
- most of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Sarangani, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental
Friday, October 23
- most of Luzon and Visayas, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental
Saturday, October 24
- Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Polillo Islands, Bicol, Romblon, Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Occidental
Conditions in affected seaboards are worsening further on Thursday. Waves in Batanes could reach 12 meters or around 39 feet high.
Up to very rough, high, or very high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Batanes – waves up to 12 meters high
- Remaining seaboards of Batanes; seaboards of Babuyan Islands; northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 9 meters high
- Remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan; seaboard of northern Isabela – waves up to 7 meters high
- Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; remaining seaboard of Isabela – waves up to 6 meters high
- Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 5.5 meters high
- Seaboards of northern Ilocos Sur and northern Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur – waves up to 4.5 meters high
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Remaining seaboard of Aurora; eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; northern seaboard of Northern Samar – waves up to 4 meters high
- Remaining seaboards of Ilocos Sur and Northern Samar; western seaboard of Pangasinan – waves up to 3.5 meters high
- Seaboards of La Union and Eastern Samar – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate to rough seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands, Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental; remaining eastern seaboard of Quezon; remaining seaboard of Pangasinan – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Seaboard of Zambales; western seaboards of Bataan and Batangas; northern and western seaboards of Lubang Islands; southern seaboard of Davao Oriental – waves up to 2 meters high
ALSO ON RAPPLER
- Lacson calls out Cayetanos for hijacking DENR budget hearing
- Where in the world is Atong Ang? Is he in the Philippines or not?
- [DECODED] You no longer have to click anything to be targeted. But you can fight back.
Rosal might exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday evening or early Saturday morning, October 24. It entered PAR on Tuesday, October 20.
After leaving PAR, Rosal is likely to be downgraded to a severe tropical storm on Saturday.
Rosal is the Philippines’ 18th tropical cyclone for 2026, and the first for October. PAGASA earlier estimated the country may have one or two tropical cyclones during the month.
The Philippines is currently in a transition period to the northeast monsoon or amihan, following the end of the southwest monsoon or habagat, which was announced last October 5.
The northeast monsoon typically brings surges of cold temperatures, but the upcoming amihan period could be warmer as the existing strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean is predicted to become very strong in the fourth quarter of 2026. – Rappler.com