Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are facing renewed uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook after US initial jobless claims fell to 194,000, bringing layoffs close to their lowest level in 57 years.
Summary
- US initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 194,000, coming in below economists’ expectations of 200,000.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, while economists anticipate another 25 basis point hike in December.
- Bitcoin faces resistance near $85,000, with a breakout potentially opening the way toward $87,000 and $90,000.
- Ethereum remains below $2,500, buyers need to reclaim it before a possible recovery toward $2,550 and $2,700 may come into play.
- XRP faces resistance between $1.38 and $1.41, while a move below $1.33 could put the $1.28 support level back in focus.
According to the US Department of Labor’s October 22 report, new applications for unemployment benefits dropped by 6,000 during the week ended October 17, compared with economists’ expectations of 200,000.
The four week moving average fell by 1,000 to 197,750, while continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.728 million in the preceding week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.1%.
Initial claims are now approaching the 189,000 recorded in July, the lowest reading since 1969, suggesting that employers are still reluctant to lay off workers despite weaker hiring conditions.
However, September’s employment report showed that the US economy added just 29,000 jobs, compared with 133,000 in August, while unemployment stood at 4.2%.
Economists have described the current labor market as one where companies are neither hiring aggressively nor cutting large numbers of jobs.
The latest figures have arrived ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 27 and 28 meeting, where policymakers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00%.
With inflation remaining elevated amid the conflict involving Iran, economists expect another 25 basis point rate hike in December.
Higher borrowing costs can make speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies less attractive, although the latest employment figures alone do not establish whether Bitcoin, Ethereum or XRP will move lower.
Bitcoin price outlook depends on $85,000 resistance
Bitcoin was trading near $84,200 on October 22, having recovered from its recent decline below $80,000 but still struggling to establish a convincing move above $85,000.
The cryptocurrency has remained sensitive to changes in US monetary policy expectations, particularly as investors assess whether institutional demand can support another recovery.
In an October 21 Bitcoin price assessment, crypto.news reported that analysts were watching the $84,000 to $85,000 region, where more than $2 billion in potential short liquidation liquidity had accumulated.
A sustained move above $85,000 could bring $87,000 into focus, followed by the psychological $90,000 level if buying continues.
However, failure to maintain the recent recovery would leave $82,200 as an important support area, with $80,000 becoming the next level to watch.
Daily technical readings offer a mixed picture. Bitcoin’s relative strength index was around the neutral region, while its 50 day moving average remained below the prevailing price.
The technical indicators for Bitcoin place resistance near $84,714, although a confirmed breakout would require the cryptocurrency to maintain its position above that level.
Ethereum price is struggling below $2,550
Ethereum was trading near $2,435, having failed to maintain its earlier recovery toward $2,500.
The cryptocurrency has faced pressure from institutional fund withdrawals, with US spot Ether exchange traded funds recording $103.3 million in net outflows on October 19 and another $26.1 million on October 20.
An October 21 Ethereum price outlook identified $2,500 as an important recovery threshold, while $2,800 remained a possible upside target if buying demand returned.
Daily technical indicators currently place Ethereum’s RSI near 43, suggesting that sellers retain some control without the asset entering deeply oversold territory.
ETH remains below its 50 day simple moving average near $2,550 but above its 200 day average around $2,151.
A recovery above $2,500 would bring the $2,550 to $2,575 resistance region into view, followed by $2,700 if momentum improves.
On the downside, losing $2,400 could expose the $2,350 support region, where buyers previously stepped in during October’s decline.
Ethereum developers are preparing the Glamsterdam upgrade’s Hoodi testnet activation for October 26, although a mainnet launch date has not been confirmed.
XRP needs to clear $1.40 resistance
XRP was trading around $1.36 on October 22, following a difficult month that saw the cryptocurrency retreat from approximately $1.49 at the beginning of October.
The token has struggled to sustain a recovery despite developments involving institutional adoption and changes to the XRP Ledger.
An October 21 XRP price outlook noted that Evernorth had completed its merger ahead of an October 12 Nasdaq debut, with the company reporting holdings of approximately 473 million XRP.
However, the token’s price has remained below its 50 day moving average near $1.41, while the daily RSI around 42 indicates relatively weak buying momentum.
XRP faces resistance between $1.38 and $1.41, and if buyers manage to push the price above this range, the next levels to watch would be $1.50 and $1.55.
If sellers regain control, $1.33 remains the first downside level to watch, followed by the 200 day moving average near $1.28.
The XRP Ledger activated its BatchV1_1 amendment on October 9, allowing up to eight transactions to be processed within a single batch. That could gradually be perceived as an upside catalyst.