Muhammad Shahbaz Anwar
2026 marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two iron-clad brothers, Pakistan and China. Pakistan was among the earliest countries to recognize the People’s Republic of China and the two countries formally established diplomatic relations on May 21, 1951. This occasion provides an opportunity to reflect on how the relationship has evolved and what it could look like in 2051.
Over the past 75 years, both Pakistan and China have consistently supported each other in diplomacy, strategic affairs, defence and economic cooperation. Political trust became one of the defining characteristics of the relationship, strengthened by regular high-level exchanges and cooperation on regional and international issues. Trade, investment and development projects expanded, while the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) improved infrastructure, transportation and connectivity.
Overall, the first 75 years can be viewed as a period during which foundations such as trust, connectivity and strategic cooperation were established. The question for the next 25 years is how these foundations can be converted into sustained economic and technological gains and where Pakistan stands despite having such a strong relationship with China.
Pakistan is a developing state with limited economic and institutional capacity, yet it maintains exceptionally strong strategic ties with China, one of the world’s major powers. But strong diplomatic relations alone do not automatically translate into national power. Over the next 25 years, Pakistan has a strong opportunity to strengthen its economic and institutional capacity by turning this diplomatic relationship into productive economic capacity, technological capability, regional connectivity and human capital development.
Pakistan’s current position presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Pakistan has not yet fully transformed its geographical position, population, natural resources into sustained economic strength. The underdeveloped industrial sector, limited export capacity, technological gaps and institutional weaknesses continue to restrict its ability to benefit fully from opportunities created by its relationship with China. The focus should, therefore, be on closing the gap between Pakistan’s potential and its actual capacity. The question is not only what China can provide to Pakistan, but what Pakistan can build through this partnership.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has entered a new phase primarily known as CPEC 2.0. While Phase-I focused on energy generation, transport infrastructure and connectivity, CPEC Phase-II seeks to broaden cooperation in industrialization, agriculture, minerals, technology and innovation. CPEC 2.0 can provide a platform for greater industrialization, investment, agricultural development, mining and regional connectivity. Pakistan should aim to become a productive partner capable of manufacturing, exporting and participating in regional and global value chains. This transition reflects an important shift as CPEC moves from building physical infrastructure to generating productive economic activity. The central challenge for Pakistan is therefore to convert the infrastructure and connectivity created during Phase-I into sustainable industrial growth, exports, employment and technological development.
On August 31, 2026, the 92nd Progress Review Meeting on the CPEC Action Plan 2025-2029 was held at which it was stated that CPEC Phase-II aims to transform the Pakistan-China strategic partnership into sustainable economic growth. CPEC Phase-I made a substantial contribution to Pakistan’s infrastructure base. Approximately $25 billion in Chinese investment was made during Phase-I, while around 8,000 MW of power-generation capacity was added. The phase also included the development of the Thar coal project and a fiber-optic network. Based on these investments of Phase-I, CPEC Phase-II will promote cooperation in industry, agriculture, minerals, technology, human-resource development and business-to-business partnerships.
Industrialization is particularly important to the success of CPEC Phase-II. However, establishing industrial zones alone will not guarantee industrial transformation. Pakistan needs to create conditions under which firms can operate competitively, including reliable energy supplies, efficient logistics, predictable regulations, access to finance and streamlined customs procedures. More importantly CPEC-related industrial investment should contribute to Pakistan’s export capacity rather than primarily serving the domestic market.
Cooperation with China in technology, AI, the digital economy, agriculture and scientific research can help Pakistan move from being a consumer of technology toward becoming a partner in innovation. This transformation will also require greater investment in education, vocational training and human capital so that Pakistan’s large young population becomes an economic advantage rather than simply a demographic statistic.
Pakistan’s geographical position provides another opportunity. With China to its north, the Arabian Sea to its south and proximity to Central Asia and the Middle East, Pakistan has the potential to become an important regional connectivity and trade hub. However, geography alone is not enough; security, efficient institutions, infrastructure and competitive industries are necessary to turn geographical potential into economic value. If Pakistan can develop these capacities over the next 25 years, CPEC and Gwadar could become more than infrastructure projects; they could become platforms for greater regional trade and economic integration.
Such a transformation would not only benefit Pakistan but also China’s long-term interests. A growing Pakistani economy would provide Chinese businesses with a larger market, while stronger industries and exports could create greater opportunities for Chinese investment and joint ventures. A more productive CPEC would also make regional connectivity more commercially valuable, while a stable and economically capable Pakistan would be a more reliable strategic partner for China. In this sense, Pakistan’s development should not be viewed as separate from the future of the bilateral relationship. The stronger Pakistan becomes, the more valuable its partnership with China can become.
The period between 2026 and 2051 should, therefore, be viewed as an opportunity for both countries to move the relationship from strategic trust towards greater strategic capability and mutual benefit. By 2051, the ideal outcome would be a Pakistan that has used its partnership with China to build stronger institutions, a productive economy, technological capability and regional connectivity. At the same time, China would gain a stronger, more stable and more capable partner.
When the two countries celebrate 100 years of diplomatic relations in 2051, the most meaningful achievement would be to look back on an era in which strategic trust was transformed into shared prosperity.
Long Live Pakistan-China Friendship.