Thursday 15th Octobber, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly cranking up pressure on US President Donald Trump to resume military strikes on Iran ahead of the upcoming elections in Israel and the US. Trump recently declared that there would be no military operations against Iran until the conclusion of the US midterm elections in November, but speculation is rife that Netanyahu may be able to persuade him to change his mind.

Netanyahu appears to view the Iran conflict through the Clausewitzian lens. Prussian General and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz has argued that war is not an isolated military undertaking divorced from political considerations; it is an instrument used by states to achieve political objectives when other means prove insufficient or when leaders choose to resort to force. Critics of Israel claim that Netanyahu is trying to further his own political interests by escalating an international conflict. They argue that Netanyahu’s support base has shrunk considerably at home as he is facing criminal charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three separate cases, and therefore he is using the Iran conflict, etc., to portray himself as a leader best equipped to deal with threats to Israel’s security.

Renewed military confrontation with Iran could give a big fillip to Netanyahu’s election campaign. Political scientists call this phenomenon ‘diversionary war theory’; leaders facing declining popularity, domestic unrest or threats to their tenure tend to use an international confrontation to redirect public attention, stimulate patriotism and rally citizens around their governments.

In the US, the Republicans face a serious risk of suffering a huge setback at the upcoming midterms and losing control of the House of Representatives, while their chances of retaining the Senate are believed to be considerably better, although Democrats now have a realistic opportunity to capture it as well. Current forecasts favour the Democrats in both chambers, but the Senate contest remains much closer. This is an unsettling proposition for President Trump, who will not hesitate to do everything in his power to improve his party’s electoral chances.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s desperation to retain his hold on power amidst the Israeli Opposition recovering lost ground has given rise to several conspiracy theories, the most prominent among them being that the recent attempted hijacking of Flydubai flight was an Israeli false-flag operation; the incident was staged for political purposes. It may be recalled that a conspiracy theory about the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023 alleged that Netanyahu had prior knowledge of the assault but deliberately allowed it to happen because the resulting war would strengthen his political position.

World history is replete with instances where rulers fought wars to consolidate their power at home. Historians tell us that Napoleon III involved France in the Crimean War so as to strengthen its legitimacy and restore France’s international standing. Russia’s war in Chechnya enabled Vladimir Putin to establish his image as a decisive leader.

The next phase of the Iran war is very likely to be far more destructive than the previous ones. Future military operations against Iran are bound to have unprecedented global consequences. Oil prices will soar again, making economies scream the world over. Worse, Iran has explicitly threatened to target regional digital infrastructure, including submarine cables and data centres if war resumes. Iran’s threat is credible enough to merit attention, although it does not establish that attacks on every category of infrastructure are inevitable or that Iran has announced a specific operation against US-based facilities.

If Iran carries out its threat in case of the US and Israel resuming strikes, the UAE and Bahrain will face direct risks; the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and parts of Saudi Arabia will be exposed to damage affecting Gulf submarine cables. Sri Lanka and India are among the potential secondary victims of a wider outage, especially if Red Sea cables are damaged. The possibility of attacks on cables causing widespread disruption to European internet connectivity cannot be ruled out, according to experts, but military might blinds powerful nations to reality and drives them to act recklessly. All one can do is hope that what is feared will not come to pass.