Explained: From US midterms to UN leadership race, how Washington’s power shapes both

Two major political decisions are approaching, one in Washington and the other at the United Nations. On November 3, Americans will vote in midterm elections that will determine control of Congress for the final two years of US President Donald Trump's second term.

Meanwhile, diplomats at the United Nations are working to select the organisation's next secretary-general, with veteran UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh formally joining the race this week.

Although the two contests follow different rules, they share an important connection: the United States has significant influence over both domestic policymaking and the international institutions in which it participates. But could the outcome of the midterms affect Washington's approach to the UN, and what does this mean for the next Secretary-General?

Why are the US midterms important this year?

The November 3 elections will decide all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. Republicans currently control both chambers, giving Trump's administration a congressional majority as it pursues its legislative priorities.

The elections come amid debate over the cost of living, the conflict involving Iran and changes to congressional district boundaries. For voters, the outcome will help determine which party controls legislation, federal spending and congressional oversight during the next two years.

A change in control of either chamber could also alter the relationship between Congress and the White House.

How could the results affect US foreign policy?

The president remains the central figure in US diplomacy, regardless of which party controls Congress. However, lawmakers have considerable influence over government spending, legislation and oversight.

Congress can question administration officials, investigate foreign policy decisions and approve or restrict funding for international programmes. The Senate also confirms ambassadors and other senior officials nominated by the president.

This means the midterm results could affect how the administration's international priorities are funded, scrutinised and implemented. However, a change in congressional control would not automatically reverse existing foreign policy decisions.

Where does the UN leadership race come in?

The UN is preparing to select a successor to António Guterres, whose second term ends on December 31.

On October 21, the UAE formally nominated Lana Nusseibeh for the position of secretary-general. The appointment process differs significantly from an American election. Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the secretary-general is appointed by the General Assembly following a recommendation from the Security Council.

The Council has 15 members, including five permanent members — the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom.

Each permanent member can block a formal recommendation through its veto power.

This gives Washington a direct role in determining which candidates can advance to the final appointment stage.

Can the US midterms influence who becomes Secretary-General?

Not directly. American voters do not elect the UN Secretary-General, and members of Congress do not vote on candidates for the position.

The US position in the Security Council is represented through its executive branch and diplomatic mission. That distinction is important because the UN selection process is already underway, while the newly elected Congress will not begin its term until January 2027.

The midterm results therefore do not directly determine Washington's vote in the current selection process.

However, the composition of the next Congress could influence the wider relationship between the US and UN through funding decisions, legislation and oversight.

What happens behind the scenes in the UN race?

Unlike the US midterms, the contest for Secretary-General is not decided by public campaigning or a nationwide vote.

Candidates seek diplomatic support from member states, particularly those serving on the Security Council. Informal voting rounds, known as straw polls, allow Council members to indicate whether they encourage or discourage a candidate.

These discussions help identify potential obstacles before a formal recommendation is made. A candidate must secure at least nine votes in the 15-member Security Council without a veto from any permanent member.

Once the Council recommends a candidate, the General Assembly considers the appointment. This means even a candidate with considerable international support can face difficulties if a permanent member objects.

Why does lobbying matter?

Candidates and their supporting governments engage in diplomatic discussions to present their priorities and seek backing. These discussions can involve international security, conflict prevention, humanitarian assistance and proposals for reforming the organisation.

For a candidate such as Nusseibeh, gaining support involves engaging with countries that may hold very different positions on international conflicts. The challenge is not simply to attract the largest number of supporters but to secure a level of acceptance that allows the Security Council to reach a recommendation.

The UN does not publicly release the results of its informal straw polls, meaning much of the negotiation takes place away from public scrutiny.

What power does the UN Secretary-General actually have?

The secretary-general is the UN's chief administrative officer, overseeing the Secretariat and helping coordinate the organisation's work. The position also carries significant diplomatic responsibilities. The secretary-general can mediate disputes, encourage negotiations and draw international attention to humanitarian emergencies.

Under Article 99 of the UN Charter, the officeholder can bring a matter that may threaten international peace and security to the Security Council's attention.

However, the secretary-general cannot independently impose sanctions, authorise military action or compel governments to follow recommendations. The role depends heavily on diplomacy, persuasion and cooperation with member states.

Why could 2027 be an important year?

The next secretary-general is expected to take office on January 1, 2027, just two days before the newly elected US Congress begins its term. The timing brings together a new period of leadership at the UN and a potentially different political balance in Washington.

The secretary-general will need to work with US and other major powers on international security, humanitarian operations and institutional priorities. At the same time, US Congress will continue to exercise influence over US financial contributions to international organisations and the administration's foreign policy.

The two political processes remain separate, but their consequences could intersect as the next secretary-general begins work. For the UN's next leader, the challenge will extend beyond securing the appointment. It will also involve navigating relationships with governments whose domestic politics, priorities and willingness to cooperate can change.