Who will win 2026 Ballon d'Or? Harry Kane faces late surge from Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal

For the first time in the award’s history, the gala will be hosted in London on Monday, October 26.

In fact, odds across sportsbooks are shortening on Kane, who is now odds-on favourite to become the first Englishman in 25 years to win the Ballon d’Or.

Kane is priced at 4/11 at the time of writing, with Yamal the nearest challenger at odds of 2/1 after a remarkable late surge in the days leading up to the ceremony.

Real Madrid and France star Mbappe was 16/1 just a few days ago, and is now the clear second-favourite.

Lamine Yamal was briefly favourite after helping Spain to win the World Cup in the summer, while Kane grabbed six goals as England crashed out at the semi-final stage.

Both players starred as their respective clubs won their domestic leagues, Barcelona lifting La Liga and Bayern Munich victorious in the Bundesliga.

Although both players have impressed in the opening stages of the 2026/27 campaign, performances this season are not considered for the 2026 award according to the Ballon d’Or’s selection criteria.

The 30 nominees are ranked on three criteria, with a player’s ‘individual performances, decisive and impressive character’ given the most weight.

Then nominees’ team performances and club titles won are considered, before voters weigh up ‘class and fair play’.

Other contenders include eight-time winner Lionel Messi at 40/1, while 2024 Ballon d’Or recipient Rodri is the only other player with odds below 100/1 with Sky Bet, the Spaniard priced at 40/1.

2026 Ballon d’Or winner odds

Harry Kane: 4/11

Kylian Mbappe: 2/1

Lamine Yamal: 9/2

Lionel Messi: 40/1

Rodri: 40/1

Erling Haaland: 100/1

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: 100/1

Michael Olise: 100/1

Ousmane Dembele: 100/1

Bruno Fernandes: 100/1

Achraf Hakimi: 100/1

Declan Rice: 100/1

Vitinha: 100/1

Fabian Ruiz: 100/1

Gabriel Magalhaes: 100/1

Joao Neves: 100/1

Nuno Mendes: 100/1

Vinicius Jr.: 100/1

Marc Cucurella: 100/1

Marquinhos: 100/1

Jude Bellingham: 125/1

Luis Diaz: 125/1

William Saliba: 125/1

Pau Cubarsi: 125/1

William Pacho: 125/1

Julian Quinones: 125/1

Sadio Mane: 125/1

(Odds via Sky Bet, subject to change.)

Follow the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony live on Standard Sport!