Ethiopia Accused of Role in Somalia’s Southwest Conflict

MOGADISHU, Somalia — The Ethiopian government is facing sharp accusations of stoking political and security turmoil across southwest Somalia, following reports questioning the movements of Ethiopian troops and their broader impact on regional stability.

The allegations emerge amid escalating political and military confrontations linked to leadership disputes in the Southwest State, where security conditions across the Bay, Bakool, and Lower Shabelle regions remain deeply volatile.

According to a report published by Red Sea Axis citing local sources, Ethiopian forces deliberately withdrew from several key towns in the Bay region, facilitating their takeover by Al-Shabaab militants.

The report noted that Ethiopian forces vacated military bases that had previously been reclaimed from Al-Shabaab only after costly efforts. Analysts and local officials warn that these sudden departures risk undermining international state-building initiatives and compromising European Union funding, which has funneled nearly $3 billion into Somali security operations since 2007.
Allegations of Financial Interference and Foreign Geopolitics

The Red Sea Axis report also raised allegations concerning funding reportedly originating from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to finance conflict in the region. The claims allege that bribes were paid to military officers stationed in parts of the Bay region to incentivize them to abandon their posts.

The unfolding developments in Southwest State are described in media reports as part of a wider geopolitical effort allegedly planned by Israel and funded by the UAE, with Ethiopia and elements within Kenya accused of facilitating its execution. According to these accounts, the initiative is intended to begin in Southwest State before expanding to other southern regions ahead of Somalia’s anticipated 2027 elections.

These allegations have heightened concerns over external interference in Horn of Africa affairs, drawing comparisons to the UAE’s controversial roles in conflicts across Libya, Sudan, and the escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Security analysts warn that Somalia is increasingly becoming a battleground for foreign powers competing for influence along the Red Sea corridor.

Transition Scrutiny

In August 2026, Ethiopian forces formally handed over a military base to the Somali National Army (SNA). However, as highlighted in the Red Sea Axis coverage, the transition raised immediate questions regarding the operational capacity of Somali forces to secure territory once foreign peacekeepers depart.

Neither Ethiopian military authorities nor African Union mission representatives have issued formal statements regarding the latest allegations in Southwest Somalia.