BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, picks its president in a runoff between left-wing President Lula and conservative Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened Eduardo Bolsonaro, Flávio’s brother, said in Washington on Wednesday 14 October that Justice Alexandre de Moraes must be purged from the Supreme Court.
- Why it matters Removing a justice needs 54 of Brazil’s 81 senators, and the incoming Senate has at least 49 who back such impeachments.
- The US angle Washington sanctioned Moraes in July 2025 and lifted the penalties in December, while Eduardo lives in the US despite a Brazilian prison sentence.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (15 October, 3:42 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 83% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 15 October, 4:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, brother of Brazil’s conservative presidential candidate Flávio, called for the purge of a top judge in Washington on Wednesday 14 October. “First we will have to purge this cancer called Alexandre de Moraes from the Supreme Court,” he told reporters, Folha de S.Paulo reported.
For US readers, the call came from US soil against a judge whose US sanctions, imposed in July 2025, were lifted in December. Eduardo, a former congressman, has lived in the US since 2025 and says he will not return to Brazil to serve a prison sentence.
What Eduardo Bolsonaro Said in Washington
Eduardo spoke to reporters at a gala celebrating Hispanic culture in Washington, where Argentina’s President Javier Milei was among the guests of honour. The cheapest ticket cost US$3,000, the São Paulo daily Folha de S.Paulo reported.
“I also don’t see Flávio Bolsonaro as president being able to govern with Moraes on the Supreme Court,” Eduardo said. He also told a columnist for the news site UOL that “the issue is very personal,” the Brasília news site Poder360 reported.
Eduardo also claimed the top judge had “come crawling after a deal” and was glad the Liberal Party (PL) turned it down. The PL is the conservative party of Flávio, a senator and its candidate, and of their father, former president Jair Bolsonaro.
At the gala, Eduardo promised that a Flávio victory would “finally free our country, starting with my father,” Poder360 reported. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
Who Moraes Is and Why Washington Targeted Him
Alexandre de Moraes, appointed to Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) by former president Michel Temer, led the 2025 coup case against Jair Bolsonaro. Folha reported that the top judge is due to take over as the court’s president in September 2027.
On 30 July 2025, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Moraes under the Global Magnitsky human rights program. It said he “has used his position to authorize arbitrary pre-trial detentions and suppress freedom of expression.”
The Treasury lifted those sanctions on 12 December 2025. It removed Moraes, his wife Viviane Barci de Moraes and a company linked to them from its list of sanctioned people and firms.
Brazil’s top court later sentenced Eduardo to four years and two months for coercion, finding he used his US stay to pressure its judges. Eduardo calls the case political persecution, Poder360 reported.
Eduardo Says He Will Not Return to Serve Time
On Thursday 8 October, Moraes ordered the sentence to begin and had Eduardo’s passports cancelled, according to Folha. Poder360 reported that an arrest warrant was issued and that Eduardo holds a US green card.
“I am not going to serve time in prison while innocent,” Eduardo told reporters on Wednesday. He planned to thank Milei for his stance on Brazilians convicted over the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in Brasília.
Eduardo denied asking US President Donald Trump to endorse Flávio before the runoff, Folha reported. He instead accused the US government of the time of trying to sway Brazil’s 2022 vote through USAID, the aid agency Trump has since dismantled.
How a Justice Could Be Removed
Brazil’s constitution gives the Senate the power to try and remove Supreme Court justices, and a conviction needs 54 of its 81 votes. The new Senate formed after the Sunday 4 October vote will have at least 49 senators who favour impeaching justices, Folha reported.
Supreme Court justices fear impeachment cases once the new Senate takes office in 2027, the paper added. Some want to reach out to more moderate PL senators to protect the top judge and his colleagues.
Moraes would be first in line for impeachment if Flávio wins, a column in the São Paulo daily Estadão said on Wednesday. Supreme Court justices say privately that Temer, who now backs Flávio, has stepped in to shield his old friend, the column added.
Flávio’s campaign coordinator, Senator Rogério Marinho of the PL, has denied any political deal with the court to protect justices such as Moraes. No Brazilian Supreme Court justice has ever been removed by impeachment, and requests against Moraes have piled up in the Senate for years.
What It Means for You
For US investors in Brazilian stocks and the real, a clash between a new government and the top judge would add political risk. The remarks, made in the US capital, also put Washington back at the centre of a fight over Brazil’s courts.
For businesses and travellers, nothing changes before the runoff, as the push to impeach justices rests on the new Senate due in February 2027. Eduardo’s remarks came on the night that Milei called Lula a dictator in Washington.
What Prediction Markets Say
Bettors on Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 16.5% at 3:42 a.m. ET on Thursday 15 October. Flávio’s price had slipped about 3 points in 24 hours, in a market with about US$182 million traded.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 82.8% · Lula 16.5% (US$182 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 18%
As of 15 October, 4:20 am ET (09:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Flávio Bolsonaro, President Lula’s campaign and the top judge had not publicly answered Eduardo’s remarks by early Thursday morning in Brazil. Poder360 said Eduardo’s office had not replied to its questions before publication.
It is not known what deal Eduardo meant when he said the top judge came “crawling” for one. It is also unclear whether a Flávio government would back an impeachment drive or seek an amnesty that would let Eduardo return.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Eduardo Bolsonaro say about Moraes?
He said in Washington on Wednesday 14 October that “this cancer called Alexandre de Moraes” must be purged from the Supreme Court. He added that he did not see his brother Flávio governing with Moraes on the court.
Is Moraes still under US sanctions?
No, the US Treasury lifted the sanctions on 12 December 2025. It had imposed them on 30 July 2025 under the Global Magnitsky program, citing arbitrary detentions and curbs on free expression.
What is Eduardo Bolsonaro’s legal situation?
The former congressman moved to the US in 2025 and holds a US green card, Poder360 reported. Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced him to four years and two months for coercion, and he says he will not return to serve it.
Can Brazil’s Senate remove a Supreme Court justice?
Yes, through impeachment, but it takes 54 of the 81 senators. The new Senate will have at least 49 senators in favour, Folha de S.Paulo reported.
Sources: US Treasury, 30 July 2025; US Treasury OFAC, 12 December 2025; Folha de S.Paulo, 14 October 2026; Poder360, 14 October 2026; Estadão, 14 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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