In Gaza, the fate of a destroyed supermarket, a family home and even a marriage now rest on an election in Israel in which the Palestinians affected have no vote.
Munir Abu Wadi, the owner of the supermarket in Jabalia refugee camp, is waiting to see whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netaynahu is removed from power on October 27 before he sets about rebuilding his business.
“Many people have put their lives on hold until after the Israeli election,” Mr Abu Wadi told The National. “I am one of them.”
Across Gaza, residents say decisions about family life and business have been postponed in anticipation of the vote. After years of war and displacement, some see the Israeli election as a possible turning point, while acknowledging a change of government may bring no immediate improvement.
“We always believe tomorrow might be better than today,” Mr Abu Wadi said. “That is why many people in Gaza are pinning their hopes on the Israeli election and hoping Netanyahu government will fall.”
The next Israeli government will address issues such as Gaza's reconstruction, the disarmament of Hamas and an international backlash against settlements in the occupied West Bank. Israelis is electing the 120 members of the Knesset rather than voting directly for a prime minister, meaning the final outcome will depend on coalition negotiations.
Mr Netanyahu is vying for power with an opposition from which former general Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as a leading challenger. Recent opinion polls have placed Mr Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead of or close to Mr Netanyahu’s Likud.
The Israeli opposition generally supports a tough approach to Palestine and Iran, finding fault with Mr Netanyahu for his handling of the conflicts rather than calling for concessions. Still, for people in Gaza, the election has become a date around which to plan deeply personal decisions.
Marriage delayed
Mustafa Mousa, 30, has resisted months of pressure from his family to become engaged. His house is still stand-in but he says marriage requires more than money and accommodation.
“It also requires stability and peace of mind,” he told The National. Mr Mousa said he would wait until the election results offered a clear picture of Gaza’s future before deciding whether to proceed with an engagement.
“The election may not affect us immediately but its outcome will certainly influence the detail of daily life,” he said. “I told my family that I would postpone my engagement and marriage until after the Israeli election.”
The calculation is different but equally consequential for Mahdi Abu Al Qumsan, 52, whose home was demolished during an Israeli military incursion into Gaza city.
Mr Abu Al Qumsan and his family of 11 are now living as displaced people in Deir Al Balah. He hopes to clear the rubble from his home in Gaza city, and construct a basic shelter using plastic sheets, tarpaulin, wood and stones.
He has started gathering materials but has yet to start the work. “To be honest, I’m not placing much hope in the Israel election,” he said. “But if Netanyahu loses, the outcome could be slightly better for us. It might encourage me to carry out what I have been planning.”
Mr Abu Al Qumsan wants his family to live again in the neighbourhood where his children were born and where he himself grow up. But with materials scarce and Gaza’s political future unclear, even the construction of a makeshift shelter feels like a gamble.
Israeli influence
Political analyst Emad Omar said many Palestinians had come to view the election as exceptional because of the influence Israeli policy has over almost every part of their social and economic lives.
A Netanyahu victory would deepen fears that the policies and military approach of his right-wing coalition would continue, Mr Omar said. If he fails to form another government, Palestinians might hope for greater engagement with the Palestinian Authority and progress on Gaza‘s recovery and reconstruction.
But a change in leadership would not necessarily mean a fundamental shift in Israel policy towards Gaza. Mr Eisenkot, who served in Mr Netanyahu‘s war cabinet before resigning in 2024 over what he said was a lack of strategy, has broadly supported Israeli military operations while criticising the government’s management of the war.
Mr Abu Wadi also acknowledged that Netanyahu’s successor might not offer Palestinians a substantiality different future. “It’s true that whoever comes next may not be any better,” he said. “But people are eager, at the very least, to see the departure of those whose names have become associated with the war.”
Polling suggests Mr Netanyahu faces a serious challenge but uncertainty over possible coalitions mean the outcome remains difficult to predict. Few analysts would count out Mr Netanyahu, who has led Israel for all but an 18-month period since 2009.
There are also fears in Gaza about what could happen before polling day. Mr Omar said Palestinians were concerned that a new military escalation might alter the course of the campaign. “No one can predict what Netanyahu is thinking,” he said. “There is concern that he may initiate a major event before the vote in an attempt to change the political landscape or shift opinion polls in his favour.”