In most divisions and most years, a 1-4 start would leave one hoping and praying for a chance to win a division title. But not in the NFC South this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers started the 2026 season, and nothing went right. They kept turning the ball over, they allowed opposing quarterbacks who were years removed from success to have big games, and they had an injured starting quarterback. However, after just one stunning win on Thursday Night Football, it’s not crazy for Bucs fans to start talking themselves into success in 2026.
NFC South Madness: Somehow Some Way The Bucs Are Still Firmly In The Division Race
The Bucs find themselves only a game and a half behind the Panthers for first place in the NFC South despite their horrific start. They still control their own destiny with all six of their division games yet to be played.
Tampa Bay also has the second easiest schedule remaining in the NFL. Their NFC South counterparts have the second (Atlanta), 18th (Carolina), and 27th (New Orleans) most difficult schedules remaining in the NFL.
Even more encouragement for Bucs fans is that Tampa Bay endured a three-plus-game losing streak in 2022, 2023, and 2024 and still went on to win the NFC South. The Bucs endured a four-game losing streak in the middle of 2024 and still ended up finishing 10-7 and winning the NFC South.
The Buccaneers Defense Better Than Expected?
Cincinnati scored 33 points on Tampa Bay in Week 1. And then Bucs fans had to swallow the pill of Deshaun Watson having his best game as a Cleveland Brown in Week 2. The consensus was that Tampa Bay’s defense was doomed for another mediocre season.
The Bucs currently rank 14th in the NFL, allowing their opponents to score 22.4 points per game this season.
However, when you dig deeper, you can see that Tampa Bay’s offensive performance has been good this season. The Bucs rank seventh in the NFL, allowing 299.4 yards per game this season. They have some of the traits of a vintage Todd Bowles defense. They rank second in the NFL in rushing defense, with opponents rushing for just 72.8 yards per game.
Tampa Bay’s defense has also been constantly put in compromised positions. The Bucs rank 25th in the NFL, averaging 1.8 turnovers per game. The only time a Bucs opponent has scored over 30 points this season was Cincinnati in Week 1 when Tampa Bay had four turnovers.
The Bucs defense is coming off its most impressive performance of the season. They held Dallas, who came into the game with the league’s second-best scoring offense averaging 30.2 points per game, down to just 16 points. Tampa Bay forced three Dallas turnovers in the game.
Dallas was held to converting just four of their ten third-down attempts last Thursday. Overall, the Bucs defense has been good on third down, ranking eighth in the league, allowing opponents to convert just 33.9 percent of their third-down attempts this season.
A positive surprise for the Bucs defense this season has been the strong play of their cornerbacks. First-year cornerback Jacob Parrish is holding opposing passers to an 89.4 passer rating when being targeted this season. He has seven pass breakups and an interception. Zyon McCollum has also rounded into form and is playing at an “All-Pro level,” according to Bowles. McCollum is holding opposing passers to a 71.2 passer rating when being targeted this season and has six pass breakups of his own. McCollum has been matched up against some of the league’s top receivers this season.
Tampa Bay’s defense will need to continue to be an underlying strength if the Bucs want to claw themselves out of the 0-4 hole they dug for themselves.
Baker Mayfield Returning Soon?
Tampa Bay starting quarterback Baker Mayfield has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Steelers. However, it was stated by the Bucs offensive coordinator that Mayfield tried to work his way back for the game against Pittsburgh.
This announcement could mean that Mayfield could return from his thumb injury as soon as next Sunday when the Bucs play a crucial game against Carolina.
When Mayfield returns, he will surely be motivated to play well. He signed a huge three-year $165 million contract extension right before the regular season started.
However, it wasn’t the start to the season Mayfield would have wanted. He passed for just 615 yards and two touchdowns in three games before getting injured. Mayfield was responsible for five turnovers before going down at the end of the Minnesota game.
As for this week, the Bucs have to feel pretty good about undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. He has 337 passing yards, 87 rushing yards, and three touchdowns in two games as starter. Daniels threw three interceptions in his first game against Green Bay, but played a turnover-free game last week against the Cowboys. Last week, Daniels posted the highest completion percentage in a game for any undrafted rookie quarterback ever.
Daniels will be going against a Steelers defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most major passing statistical categories this season.
Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation looks far less grim than it did a couple of weeks ago.
The Last Word
The Bucs will still have to play a high level of football the rest of the way if they want to win the NFC South. This 2026 team has not proven that they can play well for an extended stretch of play so far. They’ve still only won a single game.
However, we have seen Bowles’ teams in the past dig out of losing streaks and win the division. And the teams around Tampa Bay in the NFC South have looked far from world beaters.
Bucs fans will have to start watching the results of their NFC South counterparts. This weekend the Panthers play at the Eagles, the Falcons host the Bears, and the Saints play at the Giants.
It may not be set in stone, but there is still hope for Bucs fans to see a division title this season.
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Main Photo: [Jerome Miron] – Reuters Connect