President Donald Trump’s approval among non-MAGA Republicans turned negative following a double-digit swing against him in an October Fox News Poll. It suggests dissatisfaction has reached a less ideologically aligned part of his party.
It matters weeks before the midterms because Republican candidates need unity across the party while confronting widespread dissatisfaction over living costs.
GOP campaigns in competitive House and Senate races could face weaker enthusiasm or split-ticket voting among Republicans who remain outside the MAGA core.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement that Trump had built "one of the most robust coalitions in political history" through the MAGA movement. Ingle said the president remained the Republican Party’s "unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator."
Ingle added that Trump was committed to preserving Republican majorities in Congress. The spokesman pointed to his record on taxes, prescription-drug costs, border security, crime, energy and private-sector employment.
Ingle framed the midterm choice as one between Trump’s "commonsense agenda" and Democratic policies and opposition.
Need-To-Know Numbers
- Only 18 percent of voters said their family was better off than two years ago, the new Fox News poll found.
- Trump received 22 percent approval for his handling of inflation, while 77 percent disapproved.
- In October, 72 percent of MAGA Republicans said they were certain to vote, compared with 52 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.
- In the new poll, 60 percent of voters identified the cost of living as the country’s most-important economic problem.
- Some 74 percent rated the economy negatively, while 53 percent expected it to worsen over the next year.
Why It Matters
Presidential disapproval does not automatically translate into support for Democratic congressional candidates.
Even so, a loss of enthusiasm among Republican-leaning voters could prove consequential in close races decided by small changes in participation.
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A Republican Divide Emerges
The September Fox News Poll, conducted from September 11 to 14 among 1,211 registered voters, found 39 percent approving of Trump’s performance and 61 percent disapproving, giving a net approval rating of -22 points.
Its full-sample margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.
Among non-MAGA Republicans, 53 percent approved and 46 percent disapproved, producing a net rating of plus seven.
The October survey, conducted from October 9 to 12 among 1,202 registered voters, put Trump at 36 percent approval nationally and 64 percent disapproval, a net rating of minus 28.
Its full-sample margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Approval among non-MAGA Republicans stood at 47 percent, with 52 percent disapproving.
That represented a 12-point movement in the subgroup’s net rating, from plus seven to minus five.
Support remained much stronger among the party’s MAGA wing: 95 percent approved of Trump’s performance, down from 98 percent in the previous poll, compared with 76 percent of Republicans overall, down from 79 percent in the previous poll.
That contrast presents GOP candidates with a delicate political calculation.
Creating distance from the president could disappoint highly supportive MAGA voters, while embracing him closely may do less to reassure Republicans who have soured on his performance.
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Cost of Living Adds To Political Pressure
Household finances provide an important backdrop to the movement in Trump’s approval.
Nearly three-quarters rated economic conditions negatively, while a majority expected them to deteriorate over the following year.
Sixty-six percent were dissatisfied with the country’s direction, while 70 percent disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy and 69 percent disapproved of his approach to tariffs, according to the October Fox News Poll.
That pessimism gives Republican candidates a difficult backdrop for arguing that voters should continue supporting the party in power.
Pocketbook frustration does not mean these voters will back Democrats.
It could instead surface through lower turnout, reduced campaign enthusiasm or a decision to separate views of local Republican candidates from judgments about the White House.
Because the poll captures attitudes at one point in time, it cannot demonstrate that economic dissatisfaction produced the movement in Trump’s approval.
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Turnout Could Be the Greater Risk
Disaffected Republicans do not have to vote Democratic to create difficulties for GOP candidates.
Some may stay home, skip a congressional contest or participate with less enthusiasm.
October’s results point to a notable divide: 72 percent of MAGA Republicans rated themselves a 10 on a zero-to-10 likelihood-to-vote scale, compared with 52 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.
Among all registered voters, the figure was 60 percent.
September had shown a similar pattern, with 71 percent of MAGA Republicans certain to vote against 57 percent of those outside that group, while 65 percent of the full sample gave the same answer.
These results measure stated intention, not actual turnout.
Still, they suggest Republicans’ most loyal supporters may enter the election more motivated than the party’s less Trump-aligned voters.
Why the Findings Require Caution
Both surveys interviewed registered voters nationally rather than likely voters in individual battlegrounds.
They therefore cannot determine how non-MAGA Republicans will behave in a particular House district or Senate contest.
Sampling error is also larger for subgroups than for the complete sample.
Fox News says its subgroup findings are displayed only when at least 100 respondents are represented, but relatively small group sizes can produce greater month-to-month volatility.
Approval is not a congressional ballot question either.
A voter can disapprove of Trump while supporting a Republican candidate because of party identification, local issues or views about control of Congress.
The result is best understood as a warning signal inside the Republican coalition, not evidence of a completed realignment.
Its importance will depend on whether subsequent polling reproduces the pattern and whether dissatisfaction ultimately affects turnout or vote choice in competitive races.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and James Debens