Nigeria cannot live on GDP: How do we escape the quagmire?

Nigeria is not facing a crisis of statistics; it is facing a crisis of lived reality. Behind every headline announcing economic growth are families struggling with food prices, businesses weighed down by rising costs and millions of young Nigerians searching for work in an economy that seems unable to absorb their ambition.

The country must confront a question that no impressive economic figure can answer: What is the value of growth if it does not improve the lives of ordinary Nigerians?

GDP is important. Economic growth matters. Government revenue, foreign reserves, investment and macroeconomic stability are all signs of a functioning economy. But none of them, by itself, puts food on a family’s table, pays school fees, creates a job or gives a farmer the security and resources to produce.

But Nigeria cannot live on GDP alone. The true measure of progress is whether Nigerians can live with greater dignity, security and opportunity. This is not an argument against economic growth; it is an argument for growth that reaches households, expands productive capacity and improves welfare.

Nigeria’s challenge, therefore, is not merely to enlarge the economy but to convert economic activity into better living conditions. When statistics and daily experience tell different stories, the task is to close that gap.

A durable solution requires producing more of what we consume and creating greater value from what we produce. That means raising agricultural productivity, developing livestock, expanding manufacturing, strengthening small and medium-sized enterprises and investing in services and technology.

Agriculture, in particular, must be treated as a serious economic sector rather than simply a social intervention. The farmer needs security, affordable inputs, irrigation, extension services, storage, rural roads, finance and reliable markets.

The livestock producer needs pasture, water, veterinary services, animal-health infrastructure, security, markets and processing investment.

The manufacturer needs electricity, affordable credit, infrastructure and a predictable business environment.

Young Nigerians need skills and an economy capable of absorbing their energy. These are not separate demands. Together, they form the productive foundation of a stronger economy.

The disconnect between economic statistics and daily experience is most visible in the food market. When food becomes unaffordable, everything else becomes secondary. A nation that cannot feed its population remains vulnerable, regardless of the size of its economy.

We must produce more grains, roots and tubers, vegetables, poultry, fish, beef, milk and other livestock products.

But production alone is insufficient. What we produce must be preserved, processed locally, transported efficiently and connected to consumers.

The greatest opportunity lies in building complete agricultural value chains from farm and ranch to processing plant, warehouse, transport system, market and export destination. That is how agriculture becomes an engine of national wealth while lowering food costs and strengthening household security.

Insecurity is not only a security problem; it is an economic one. A farmer who cannot safely reach the farm cannot produce. A pastoralist who cannot protect livestock cannot sustain an enterprise. A transporter operating under constant threat cannot move goods efficiently. An investor will hesitate to commit capital where people and assets cannot be protected. It  reduces production, destroy livelihoods, discourage investment and deepen poverty.

Security policy and economic policy must work together. Every community made safe for productive activity becomes an economic asset.

Nigeria does not necessarily need government to spend more. It needs government to spend more effectively. Every major expenditure should answer one question: What productive capacity will this investment create?

Public expenditure must therefore be judged by outcomes, not merely by the size of its appropriation. Borrowing should be tied to investments capable of increasing productivity, reducing costs or generating future economic returns.

Citizens should not have to depend on political speeches to know whether public projects are succeeding.

Growth becomes meaningful to citizens only when their incomes retain or increase their value. A worker whose salary rises while food, transport, rent and basic services rise faster does not experience that as progress.

Nigeria must therefore reduce the cost of production. Energy, transportation, finance, logistics and multiple taxation all affect the prices consumers pay and the jobs businesses can create.

We must invest seriously in human capital. Education should place greater emphasis on literacy, numeracy, technical competence, digital skills and employability. Universities, technical institutions and businesses should work together to expand apprenticeships and industry-linked training.

Economic recovery does not rest entirely with government. Citizens also have responsibilities.

Nigerians must become more productive, support legitimate local enterprises, acquire useful skills, reject corruption and pay legitimate taxes. But citizens must also become more demanding of those who manage public resources.

Political promises should no longer be enough. At every level of government, Nigerians should ask four simple questions: What was promised? What was delivered? What did it cost? Who benefited?

Government, for its part, must set clear goals, publish results, protect productive activity and correct policies that fail.

The immediate national priorities should be clear: food production and productive infrastructure; reliable and affordable energy; lower costs of doing business; security for productive communities; disciplined public investment; human-capital development; and transparent accountability.

These priorities are interconnected. Secure farms increase food production. Better roads and electricity reduce production costs. Affordable finance helps businesses expand. Skilled young people become more productive. Transparent public investment ensures scarce resources are directed towards projects that generate economic value.

Nigeria has the resources to build such an economy: vast agricultural land, enormous livestock potential, mineral resources, entrepreneurial citizens, a large domestic market and a young population.

Our challenge is to convert these advantages into productive capacity and ensure that the benefits are widely shared.

The ultimate measure should therefore not be the size of GDP alone, but whether more Nigerians have productive jobs, whether farmers produce profitably, whether food becomes more affordable, whether businesses survive and expand, whether electricity becomes more reliable, whether communities are secure and whether young Nigerians can build meaningful futures at home.

The time for excuses and impressive statistics has passed. Nigeria must choose production over dependence, results over rhetoric and people over numbers.

Let us build an economy Nigerians can live on – not merely a GDP they can read about.

Ahmad resides at FMA2, off Yaya Abubakar Road, Fadamar Mada, Bauchi Email: [email protected]