Kiwi expats could prove crucial in New Zealand's 'knife edge' election

With the upcoming New Zealand election on a "knife edge", expats like Brisbane woman Mary-Leigh Scheerhoorn could help shape the result.

A permanent resident of Australia, she is one of about 126,000 New Zealanders living overseas who are registered to vote ahead of the general election on November 7. 

Kiwi expats account for more than 3 per cent of registered voters at this election, with nearly two-thirds of them in Australia.

Ms Scheerhoorn, a clinical nutritionist who has lived in Australia for 24 years, said she was voting to influence the country she hoped to return to one day.

As a Māori woman, she said she had a strong connection to New Zealand and was "drawn back to be with my people and my culture".

Voting is not compulsory in New Zealand, but at the 2023 election more than 77,000 of the up to 1 million Kiwis living overseas voted.

According to Electoral Commission figures, about 33,000 more overseas voters have registered than for the 2023 election.

Election a 'dead heat'

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who leads the National Party, is seeking a second term after defeating the Labour Party's Chris Hipkins in 2023.

The incumbent government — a right coalition of the National Party, New Zealand First and ACT Party — is up against a left bloc of the Labour Party, Green Party and Te Pāti Māori (Māori Party).

Tom Jamieson, a senior lecturer in political science at Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington, said polling suggested both the major parties, National and Labour, were generally in the high 20s.

However, a 1News-Verian poll released on Tuesday had National pushing ahead by five points.

Nonetheless, Mr Jamieson said there was a "dead heat" between the two blocs and the election looked to be on a "knife edge".

"A 1 per cent or a 2 per cent swing could decide the election," Dr Jamieson told the ABC.

"So I think it's probably in all of their interests to court the overseas vote as much as possible."

He said the non-aligned Opportunity Party could be a "kingmaker" if it won more than 5 per cent of the party vote — the threshold required to enter parliament without winning an electorate seat under the country's electoral system.

However, he said a lot depended on the turnout.

Dr Jamieson said New Zealand expats usually voted for minor parties, in part because they had historically worked harder to secure the votes of Kiwis overseas than the major parties.

He said the expat vote had also tended to "track left", with the Green and Te Pāti Māori parties receiving strong support from overseas voters at the 2023 election.

"The kinds of people who live overseas may relate more to their environmental stewardship and advocacy for Māori," he added.

Expat voting intentions

Ms Scheerhoorn said she was hoping for a new New Zealand government.

She said she was dismayed by the government's handling of issues relating to the Treaty of Waitangi/Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the nation's founding agreement with Māori people, and the removal of Māori language from some books that teach young children to read to avoid "confusion".

"This has felt like an open attack on the culture, which I think is very much the fabric of New Zealand," she said.

She said a future move home had made her consider things like the cost of living, housing and health care.

"If we want to go back and live in New Zealand … are there jobs available? What's the earning capacity? What's the tax situation look like?" she said.

She said she was very strongly drawn to the Green Party at this election and had voted for them previously.

Ron Deane, who moved to Australia from Rotorua three years ago, was also leaning towards voting for a minor party.

The Brisbane-based truck driver came over after struggling to find work in New Zealand and had similar concerns about the treaty, the cost of living and affordable housing.

He was voting because his friends and family in New Zealand were "feeling the pinch", often forced to make decisions about buying food and paying rent.

"Although I live in Australia, New Zealand is still home. I care about its future and believe it's important to have a say in the decisions that affect our people, culture and future generations," he said.

The 44-year-old said he was still deciding who he would vote for.

About 120,000 more New Zealand citizens left in the three years to August 2026 than returned, according to Stats NZ estimates.

Many like Jethro George moved to Australia in that time.

He said Australia's higher wages, cheaper house prices and lower cost of living were significant factors in the move.

"The roles I applied for in Australia paid almost double what I was on in New Zealand, with less responsibilities," he told the ABC from his home in Perth.

"Couple that with lower living costs and a relocation package, it was hard to say no."

Mr George, a 35-year-old mental health worker who also owned his own consultancy business, said he was a swing voter.

He used to work in New Zealand on housing, homelessness and poverty-related issues.

All were key policy concerns for him along with the cost-of-living crisis, which he saw first-hand on a trip to New Zealand earlier this year.

However, he was frustrated by parties that "just attack each other" rather than suggest solutions and was not yet convinced by the policies of any party, major or minor.

"There isn't the strength that you would want to see in leadership," he said.

Parties court overseas voters

Kiwi expat Tracey Lee, a strategist and former sociologist, created the non-partisan campaign Every Kiwi Vote Counts in 2020, which aims to boost the number of overseas voters.

"Those [expat] votes and perspectives can change what goes forward," she told the ABC from her home in London.

Ms Lee helped organise a virtual town hall in early October so party leaders could speak to expat voters around the world.

Jethro George said a big challenge for expats was holding on to their connection to New Zealand and seeing "the value of the vote".

"I think our votes count and they matter … the challenge is just really identifying and understanding where to put that," he said.

He wanted to see "a New Zealand that's thriving" and hoped to return there one day because he missed his family, friends and the culture.

It was difficult to see a return now, though, he said, based on where the country sat politically and economically.

"I want to live in a country where families can do more than just get by, and where contributing to the wellbeing of others doesn't come at the expense of your own family's time and financial security," he said.