KYIV – Ukraine has experienced some tough winters, but the growing fallout between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky could easily make this one the toughest yet.
Trump’s announcement of a deal to import Russian diesel to the US, his pressure on Ukraine to accept an energy ceasefire and fears over the withdrawal of US intelligence and the weakening of access to Starlink satellite systems have brought into focus the dangers Ukraine faces in the coming months.
Kyiv residents are now facing the prospect of another freezing winter, with threats of an emboldened Russia escalating its air attacks on cities across the country.
Vasyl Teremta doesn’t have high hopes for the coming months. “Everything will change when we will have less sunny days. I think it will definitely impact the mood.”
Like millions of others in the Ukrainian capital, Teremta, a 30-year-old strategy manager, has already experienced years of punishing winters. He says that last winter “we had no heating for like two months”. He also had to move out after a nearby apartment building was struck during a massive air attack.
“It was completely destroyed by a drone,” he tells The i Paper, taking out his phone and showing a video of a burning building. “A couple were killed in the attack,” he adds. “The husband died instantly and she just jumped out of the window in flames.”
Teremta often works on programmes supporting children as part of his job at the Klitschko Foundation, including building psychological support systems for Kyiv’s schools. One in three educational institutions in Kyiv have been hit by Russian missiles or drones since the start of the war, according to officials.
Teremta says projects like his are needed now more than ever.
Since August, Kyiv and the surrounding region has faced the brunt of a shifting Russian war strategy, one focused on bringing normal life to a standstill. Every hour the city is operating under an air raid alert costs more than £34m, according to Ukraine’s minister of economy and environment.
Meanwhile, the increase in jet-powered drones, which are difficult to shoot down, has given Russia the ability to carry out consistent and ongoing attacks. Russian forces have taken to launching a few of the new drones at a time towards Kyiv, with many circling the city before crashing down into data centres, medical clinics, energy facilities or apartment blocks.
The decision by Trump and Elon Musk to restrict the speed of Starlink systems in Ukraine, which are used widely by the country’s military units – as well as the withdrawal of US intelligence – will make it harder for Ukraine to launch strikes on Russian targets and defend against drone attacks.
Central districts, near embassies and government buildings, are also now facing attacks in broad daylight. Last month, a Russian drone slammed into the National Academy of Sciences, killing two people and injuring at least six others. The same day, another drone hit a nearby medical facility, killing one person.
Kyiv “is in a very dire situation”, said Vitali Klitschko, the city’s mayor, at a recent defence council meeting. “Pretending we can go on living as if it were peacetime is no longer an option. The enemy is tearing Kyiv apart.”
Kyiv residents are bracing themselves for once-unthinkable conditions, including widespread blackouts. Water and sewage supply interruptions have already been recorded, as Russian attacks target infrastructure day and night. Residents wake up to news of drone explosions and deaths, and increasingly the strong smell of smoke.
“Last year, Russia showed the world how by using missiles they can leave a city freezing. I believe they will use the same strategy again,” says Olena Pavlenko, president of the Ukrainian energy think-tank DiXi Group. She adds that missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure are only expected to intensify in the coming months.
Zelensky said he only learnt about Trump’s supposed energy ceasefire, announced a week ago, from media reports. Within hours, Ukraine was accusing Russia of breaking it, with strikes on energy infrastructure in Kharkiv. It said this came after more than 200 Russian strikes on electricity generation and transmission facilities in a week, and 17 strikes on gas and oil facilities.
For Kyiv, a few combined heat and power plants are essential to generate power for the city. But these centralised structures are relatively easy targets. Pavlenko says that Ukraine needs to decentralise critical infrastructure to reduce the impact of Russian attacks, but this isn’t a short-term solution.
Meanwhile, many in Kyiv are gearing up for the worst-case scenario. “People prepare and have water for some period of time to survive, as well as batteries,” says Pavlenko. The city is also getting ready to support the most vulnerable citizens by putting up emergency shelters – called Points of Invincibility – where people can warm up, charge devices and access the internet.
“We’re facing new threats,” says Stanislav Gryshyn, a co-founder of defence-tech company General Cherry, pointing to the latest generation of Russian drones. “The problem lies with the interceptors that are not able to reach the speed that Geran-4 and Geran-5 may reach. We’re talking about 600 kilometres per hour and more,” he adds.
On 5 October, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat confirmed that the first Geran-5 drone had been downed by one of the 12 AI-assisted gun turrets that have been installed in key locations in Kyiv, including close to critical bridges.
But Gryshyn views this as only the first stage of Vladimir Putin’s plan. “Ukraine is like a training platform, because if Russia produces thousands and thousands of Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones every month, they have no other option but to use them against Baltic countries and Nordic countries. It’s a matter of time,” he says.
Around 40 per cent of Ukrainians are prepared to leave their homes if conditions significantly worsen this winter, according to a survey published last month by research firm Gradus. Some are considering relocating to safer regions in the west of the country – or moving abroad.
For Dariia Sidorova, 23, the daily realities of living under near-constant air raid alerts and drone explosions has taken its toll. “I heard a phrase that [Ukrainians] are so focused on staying resilient that we do not notice how we break down mentally,” she says.
“Yesterday, I had given up,” she says. “I didn’t have energy for anything and I decided, if it’s gonna be like this, I’ll drop everything and move. I can go to western Ukraine or abroad and start all over.”
But a day later she says she’s feeling much better, after getting a full night’s sleep. “Life continues and I feel the opposite to yesterday. I don’t know how it’s going to be tomorrow,” she adds.