Acquit or convict? Filipinos split over VP Sara Duterte impeachment trial in latest OCTA survey

Survey from the OCTA Research released on Wednesday shows Filipinos are split when it comes to the acquittal or conviction of Vice President Sara Duterte in her ongoing impeachment trial.

"At the start of the trial, those who had taken a position were split 21% for acquittal and 17% for conviction. Three months later, the split is 25% to 21%. Both camps have grown by the same four points, the gap between them is unchanged, and neither comes close to a majority," OCTA said in its survey.

"The gap is too small to be read as a clear national lead, and the evidence-first group remains the single largest bloc," it added.

Meanwhile, the share who say they need to see the evidence first has fallen from 55% at the start of the trial to 47%.

The OCTA survey also showed that in NCR, conviction rose from 19% to 34% while acquittal slipped from 21% to 17%.

In Mindanao, acquittal rose from 41% to 52%, the only major area where either verdict commands a majority. The Visayas, meanwhile, held steady, with 53% still waiting for the evidence in both rounds.

The survey is non-commissioned work conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026, using face- to-face interviews.

A total of 1,200 probability respondents aged 18 and above, both male and female, were interviewed for the study.

The survey has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have margins of error of ±6% for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, also at a 95% confidence level.

On Tuesday, the House prosecution panel said it will submit its formal offer of evidence in the impeachment trial before Friday’s deadline.

The prosecution’s case now rests solely on Article 2, which alleges that Duterte accumulated unexplained wealth through assets that were not declared in her Statement of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth (SALN).

The House prosecution had initially been allotted 62 trial days to present its evidence but spent only 39 days before resting its case on Oct. 13, 2026.

The House prosecution panel had earlier dropped three other articles of impeachment: Article 1, which concerned confidential funds; Article 3, which alleged bribery; and Article 4, which accused Duterte of making grave threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family. —VAL, GMA News