BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, 3:34 p.m. ET · Source: Brazil’s Prosecutor General’s Office (PGR)
Key Facts
- What happened On Saturday 24 October, Brazil’s attorney general asked the Supreme Court to suspend part of an electoral court order on Indigenous voter transport.
- The rule Federal agencies must get a judge’s approval for each trip, with routes and schedules, before carrying Indigenous voters.
- Why it matters Some river journeys must start on Saturday, a day before the Sunday 25 October runoff.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (24 October, 3:30 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 24 October, 3:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The Supreme Court had not ruled when the reports were published.
Brazil’s attorney general, Paulo Gonet, asked the Supreme Court (STF) on Saturday 24 October to suspend part of a ruling by the electoral court (TSE) on how Indigenous voters reach polling stations. The ruling, issued on Friday 23 October at 7:06 p.m. ET (8:06 p.m. in Brasília) by TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques, comes one day before the Sunday runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
43 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Our guide to the Brazil runoff date has the full schedule.
The order says federal agencies must ask an electoral judge before each transport operation. In the Brazil election 2026 runoff, that rule reaches some of the country’s most remote voters, including communities that travel by boat for hours.
What the Electoral Court Ordered
Nunes Marques decided that public bodies may carry voters only after prior and express authorisation from the electoral judge, O Liberal reported. The request must name the vehicles or boats, drivers, routes, stops and times.
He refused to treat vehicles and boats of three federal bodies as pre-approved, according to CNN Brasil. They are Funai, the national Indigenous affairs agency, the Indigenous Health Secretariat (Sesai) and the Ministry of Indigenous Peoples.
Why the Attorney General Objects
Gonet argues that the order came on Friday evening, leaving too little time to approve each trip before Sunday. He says some river journeys have to begin on Saturday, Estadão reported.
In the filing, he said that approval within two days amounts, in practice, to no transport at all, according to Folha de S.Paulo. He added that agencies might stop trips for fear of being held responsible.
What the Prosecutor Wants Instead
The PGR asks the Supreme Court to restore earlier decisions by a federal court in Pará state and the federal government’s own transport plan. That plan has Funai, the Indigenous ministry and security forces working together.
Gonet says inspection should protect the neutrality of the vote without blocking anyone from reaching a polling station. He argues the transport plan should go ahead without waiting for case-by-case approval.
What It Means for US Readers
For readers following Brazil from the United States, this is a dispute about access to the ballot, not about a candidate. The main risk is to confidence in the process if remote communities cannot reach their polling stations.
Investors in Brazilian assets will watch whether the Supreme Court acts before Sunday, because court fights over voting rules can add noise to a close race.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff, and Lula 16.5% (24 October, 3:30 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$195.1 million in bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.5% · Lula 16.5% (US$195 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 3:20 pm ET (20:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The Supreme Court has not said when it will rule or which justice will handle the request. It is also not known how many voters depend on state-organised transport and how many trips have already left.
The reports reviewed do not include a public response from the electoral court. This article will be updated if either court publishes a decision.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Brazil’s attorney general go to the Supreme Court?
He asked it on Saturday 24 October to suspend part of an electoral court order on Indigenous voter transport. He says the rule cannot be met before the runoff.
What does the electoral court rule require?
Federal agencies need a judge’s prior approval for each trip. Requests must list vehicles or boats, drivers, routes, stops and times.
Who made the ruling?
Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the electoral court (TSE), issued it on Friday 23 October, at 7:06 p.m. ET (8:06 p.m. in Brasília).
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The runoff is between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Has the Supreme Court ruled yet?
Not in the reports we reviewed on Saturday 24 October. We will update this article if it does.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 24 October 2026; Estadão, 24 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 24 October 2026; O Liberal, 24 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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