We are not going to compare him with his best moment, as that would be unreasonable. What would be much more interesting to discuss is what a healthy version of Shane Bieber could offer the Blue Jays.
Yes, okay, we have to go a little further to delve into that point, since Bieber has not surpassed 100 innings in a single season since he threw 128 innings in 21 starts for the Cleveland Guardians in 2023, a year after finishing seventh in the American League Cy Young Award voting and three years after winning it in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
In that span over the last three seasons, between the ages of 29 and 31, Bieber recorded 2.1 bWAR, with an 11-4 record and a 3.58 ERA in 20 starts. He accumulated most of those numbers in his last two seasons, since joining the Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation, during a stretch in which he has faced only 401 batters.
That might seem like enough to analyze some aspects of his performance, but it was the same number of batters Dylan Cease faced in just the first half of the 2026 season.
Therefore, it is clear that it is not enough to evaluate what might be feasible for Bieber after finishing his two-year, $26 million contract with the Blue Jays.
Five days after the end of the World Series, Bieber will become a free agent, and Toronto will have to decide whether he can be part of its plans for the near future.
Should the Blue Jays Offer Bieber a Contract?
The evaluation of the condition of his arm will be the starting point, which says a lot about the risk any team would take by offering Bieber a contract.
That said, it is worth keeping in mind that Bieber has expressed his interest in returning to the Blue Jays and that, when general manager Ross Atkins was asked about that possibility, his response during the press conference at the end of the regular season was direct: “the team will work through a process” before making a decision.
In a way, Atkins hinted that the door has not been completely closed. Toronto could offer him a lower-value contract in which both sides would have something to gain.
Bieber threw only 17 2/3 innings and his xFIP soared to 5.35 in the first half of the season, but he returned in August and improved that figure to 3.95, while also recording his best K/BB rate, at 3.67.
During that stretch in the second half of the season, he also could not solve what could be considered his biggest problem: facing right-handed hitters, who produced an .834 OPS against him.
Even so, I am not surprised that Bieber can still overcome the pressure in difficult situations, since his recent struggles often came in seemingly quiet innings. That could help answer the question of how it is possible for opponents to post an .886 OPS against Bieber in Low Leverage situations, instead of .667 in Medium Leverage and .717 in High Leverage situations.
The Blue Jays will have the final say and, unless they look for other options on the market, something I do not think is likely given the way they have operated lately, it is possible that Bieber will return next season.
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