Albanese faces stark choice if Trump escalates Iran war

Twenty-three years ago, Anthony Albanese was a newish opposition frontbencher. That year was significant, not for the contribution he made as shadow minister for employment services and training (though he may argue otherwise), but for speaking out against a war he thought was wrong.

Albanese wasn't alone in his opposition; his colleague and longtime leadership rival Tanya Plibersek also said the Iraq war set a dangerous precedent for the world. Together they joined more than 40 senators and Labor MPs who signed an open letter to then US president George W Bush.

Admittedly these Labor MPs were in opposition, but it wasn't just one lone voice breaking ranks. It was 41 MPs. Imagine these same MPs and how they would respond if Donald Trump were around and said we "may ‌do another little ‌Epic ⁠Fury", as he did last week, as if it was a trivial game.

Blunting parts of the old brawler

Plibersek said at the time: "We wanted to let him know that there were many people in Australia, including the Labor Party, who didn't support the war in Iraq and we wanted him to know the reasons why."

The letter, which said the pre-emptive military action made the world more dangerous, rather than more secure, was not the only example of Albanese speaking out against the conflict.

During the first month of the conflict, in March 2003, Albanese delivered a speech in parliament that reflected his aggressive, left-wing pugilist style that earned him the nickname "the Marrickville Brawler".

"Our government is about to redefine us in the eyes of the world as willing backers of US militarism. The prime minister took a phone call and immediately said yes to President Bush, because we all know that that decision was made many months ago, before the pre-deployment of troops. We were not even at the meeting where the decision was made."

He went on to say: "We are, with this decision, supporting a pre-emptive strike, which changes forever the way that international politics works."

Albanese did acknowledge the need for regime change; it was the method that Labor opposed, not the sentiment.

Now Albanese is prime minister and a lot has changed. He begins this parliamentary sitting week with Trump saying the US may carry out another military operation against ‌Iran at a time when the war is nearing its eighth month, and rising fuel prices dominate the US midterm elections.

"We may ‌do another little ‌Epic ⁠Fury," the president said at a rally in Florida last week as he spoke about the war. He did not elaborate. Operation Epic Fury is the name used by the US military for its war ⁠against Iran.

As John Maynard Keynes is often credited with saying: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

Everyone grows up, grows older and learns in Canberra that the politics of passion give way to the business of governing and pragmatism.

Those around Albanese know the prime ministership is a job he has wanted for a long time, and one he almost never had after Bill Shorten defeated him in Labor's leadership ballot in 2013.

And while Albanese loves being PM, and loves reminding the media, the opposition and his own colleagues of the record 94-seat majority he secured at the last election, running a government has required him to blunt parts of the old brawler.

Now, another American president is threatening to escalate a war that is smashing the economy, and this time Albanese has his phone number and doesn't have to sign a letter to get his views across.

The Labor backbench has been muted during the past eight months of this war, but will it remain muted if Trump escalates the war again?

Ongoing war Labor's next pinch point

In the past few weeks, the Labor backbench has become slightly more vocal, although this is coming off a low base. But a new escalation in this ongoing war is likely to be the next pinch point.

When Trump launched a joint offensive with Israel attacking Iran in February, Albanese, supported by Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles, issued a statement supporting the action. The statement cited the need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and a need to protect Australians living in the region.

Back in February, the language was about a short, sharp attack. Like countless conflicts before it, this invasion has dragged on and even senior government figures admit to having no clue when it will end.

As it has dragged on, the cost hasn't just been felt in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent our government into a panic with low domestic fuel supplies and high bowser prices.

Some MPs will want Albanese to condemn Trump over Iran and get some distance from an unpopular president. Labor's strategy at the last election was a veiled signalling that they were the anti-Trump party, that Peter Dutton was a Trump-like figure.

But without stronger language and action, that case will be hard to argue twice. The world is becoming less safe, and Australians are angry about it.

Every sign we're in uncharted waters

A feeling that the world is spinning out of control is fuelled by a sense of being the recipients of chaos and rarely the decision makers. A more forceful position on Iran and the US is something Labor MPs have increasingly been hoping for.

In the UK, the fallout from wars in Ukraine and Iran and cyber attacks have led the government to change its language and warn that the uncertainty abroad must be planned for at a household level. This messaging is about control and a sense of agency. People feel they have no control, and some governments are trying to lean into accepting that reality.

A new government "be ready" campaign in the UK is urging the public to prepare for the disruption of everyday services and to stockpile three days of key supplies.

The checklist advises stocking up with bottled water and non-perishable food, a battery or wind-up FM radio to receive updates during outages, and cash in case electronic payments or cash machines are disrupted.

Defence Secretary Wes Streeting told BBC One's Question Time that there was not a "specific thing" in mind when it comes to potential emergency incidents, but said the advice might help during power cuts or if a local shop was subject to a cyber attack and was a matter of "everyday national resilience".

Put to him by an audience member that it could be "scaremongering" and push people towards panic buying like during the COVID-19 pandemic, he said: "We want people to be alert but not alarmed, and the truth is we looked around the rest of Europe, what are our friends doing across the continent? They are way ahead of us on some of this stuff."

If Europe is ahead, where are we? We may be geographically isolated but we are not immune to a more unsafe world both economically and strategically.

Our government hasn't told us to start stockpiling yet, but there is every sign that we are in uncharted waters.

Patricia Karvelas is host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly, and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.