An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has begun its first review of Ghana’s 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), examining the government’s fiscal performance and preparations for a 2027 budget that is expected to feature increased infrastructure investment under a lower primary surplus target.
The two-week mission, led by IMF mission chief Ruben Atoyan, will assess Ghana’s economic performance during the first nine months of 2026, focusing on revenue mobilisation, expenditure controls and proposed spending priorities, Citi Newsroom reported on October 22.
The discussions form part of the first PCI review, based on a September 30 quantitative test date. The review is expected to go to the IMF Executive Board in January 2027, according to the IMF’s published schedule, and the October mission does not constitute its completion.
Under the PCI, Ghana’s targeted primary budget surplus, measured on a commitment basis, eases from 1.5% of GDP in 2026 to 0.5% in 2027 and thereafter. The IMF said the resulting fiscal space would help Ghana address pressing development needs and strengthen social spending, while its staff report projects a more growth-friendly composition of spending driven by capital expenditure.
However, amendments to Ghana’s Public Financial Management Act in 2025 set a minimum annual primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP alongside the debt target, and the amended law requires parliamentary approval before the fiscal rules can be suspended. The IMF staff report describes the 1.5% figure as an operational target, while the government has presented it as a binding fiscal rule.
The government has not publicly set out how it intends to reconcile the lower PCI target with the statutory requirement. The PCI’s provisions do not override Ghanaian fiscal legislation.
The IMF’s July programme assessment said the more flexible fiscal path could remain consistent with debt sustainability, provided Ghana strengthened domestic revenue collection, public financial and investment management, and oversight of state-owned enterprises.
The IMF’s assessment does not constitute approval of individual infrastructure projects or allocations in the forthcoming 2027 budget.
Ghana’s fiscal policy remains anchored to a legislated objective of reducing public debt to 45% of GDP by 2034. Achieving that target will depend on primary budget balances, economic growth, borrowing costs, exchange-rate movements and continued containment of fiscal risks.
The mission is expected to examine whether the proposed investment programme and fiscal path are compatible with debt sustainability, while assessing outstanding government obligations and risks to public finances.
Energy-sector liabilities remain a concern because obligations accumulated by state-owned enterprises can create additional fiscal pressures. The IMF has called for stronger oversight of both the energy and cocoa sectors.
The review will also examine the Bank of Ghana’s financial position, recapitalisation plans, banking supervision and wider financial-sector regulation.
Under a memorandum of understanding signed in July, operational responsibility for the central bank’s Domestic Gold Purchase Programme was transferred to GoldBod, with the government and GoldBod assuming the programme’s operating costs.
The transfer was intended to reduce quasi-fiscal risks on the Bank of Ghana’s balance sheet, after the programme generated losses of GHS22bn, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, in 2025. Controlling programme costs, strengthening financial transparency and completing the central bank’s recapitalisation by 2032 remain part of the reform agenda.
On July 27 the IMF Executive Board completed the sixth and final review of Ghana’s 39-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement and reviewed Ghana’s request for the non-financing PCI, with the decision approving the PCI to be circulated once the final ECF disbursement had been made. The final ECF review unlocked approximately $371mn, bringing total disbursements to about $3bn. Unlike the ECF, the PCI provides no direct IMF financing, instead establishing quantitative targets and structural reform commitments subject to regular assessments.
The transition followed improvements in Ghana’s macroeconomic indicators. The IMF reported in July that real GDP expanded by 6% in 2025, gross international reserves reached approximately $11.9bn at the end of that year, and the country’s risk of external and overall debt distress had been reduced to moderate.
Despite those gains, outstanding debt restructuring negotiations, financial-sector vulnerabilities and contingent fiscal liabilities remain part of the reform agenda.
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