Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are living out their midterm nightmares — with nominees they didn't want and former colleagues they no longer control.
Why it matters: Together, Schumer and Thune are stuck with five Senate races in which their party establishments thought they had a better chance of winning with someone else.
- 🤠 Texas: Thune's efforts to stop Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from winning the party's Senate nomination failed. Now Republicans are spending more than $329 million to defeat state Rep. James Talarico— and it's still a nail-biter.
- 🍑 Georgia: GOP leaders couldn't convince Gov. Brian Kemp to run. The eventual nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, has struggled to keep pace with fundraising juggernaut Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). GOP money is in retreat.
- 🦞 Maine: Schumer endorsed Gov. Janet Mills, but Graham Platner's implosion left Democrats with backup Troy Jackson against Sen. Susan Collins.
- ⛴️ Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens and made a name for himself nationally. But he won by just one point even though primary polls showed him up by double digits. He's now polling within the margin of error against the GOP nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers.
- 🏈 Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan ran as a progressive, said she would not support Schumer as leader and bested establishment-backed Rep. Angie Craig. But Cook Political Report moved her race against former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya toward Republicans even as it shifted other races toward Democrats.
To make matters worse, Thune's and Schumer's former colleagues are creating fresh headaches by boosting candidates across the aisle.
- Former Sen. Joe Manchin, who flipped to independent in 2024 after being elected as a Senate Democrat, is campaigning for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), as Semafor reported.
- Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who also flipped from Democrat to independent before leaving office, is boosting Republican Jay Feely in her home House district. She even voted for him in the GOP primary, as Axios scooped.
- Former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) endorsed Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in his reelection this summer.
The other side: In two red states, Schumer landed arguably the best candidates he could get.
- Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper has all but put North Carolina to bed, and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is keeping it too close for Sen. Jon Husted's comfort in Ohio.