How Iran messaging highlights cost of war ahead of US midterm elections

In messages that appear to be directed at the American public, Iran has been highlighting the cost of the war that the United States and Israel launched against the country ahead of the United States midterm elections.

Iranian officials have published articles in state-affiliated outlets stressing the disastrous impact of the war on oil prices and the US economy, while Iran’s chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has actively targeted US officials about rising costs and military spending.

Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Tehran is looking to increase the political cost of the war for Trump by trying to talk directly to the American public.

“It’s not necessarily that they’re trying to get Democrats in power or manipulate US politics in a certain direction, other than just overall increasing the costs on this issue of the Iran war, and just playing that game of information warfare and getting out their own narrative and propaganda as well,” Toossi told Al Jazeera.

Trump’s Republican Party is looking to retain control of the Senate and House of Representatives in next month’s midterm vote. But the Democratic Party, which largely opposes the war with Iran, is mounting a strong challenge across the congressional electoral map, including in areas that have been conservative strongholds for decades, such as Texas.

On Wednesday, Ghalibaf shared a news story on inflation rising to 3.7 percent last month along with a collage of negative headlines on the US economy.

The social media post also featured a comic strip from the Road Runner cartoon showing Wile E Coyote building a catapult that misfires and launches a boulder at him.

“Let’s ‘play the percentages’. Not in odds, but in the % increases,” Ghalibaf wrote in a message to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been leading the sanctions campaign against Iran.

Bessent said last month that he represents “the house”, likening the economy to a casino while addressing the national debt and bond market.

Ghalibaf’s remark referred to the increase in inflation, underscoring that the cost of living keeps rising due to the war despite Bessent’s assertions.

Days earlier, he shared an image of a ghost shaped like a bell curve, with diesel prices rising and housing affordability and consumer confidence falling.

Since the start of the war on February 28, Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices soaring. In the US, the price of diesel is at an all-time record of $6.33 per gallon (3.8 litres), according to the American Automobile Association, and gas is $4.33, up from less than $3 before the war.

Iran has intensified its attacks on vessels around the strait in recent days after Trump and his aides repeatedly stressed that the waterway is under US control.

The uptick in energy prices has fuelled overall inflation in the economy, leading the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates last month at a time when Trump has been calling for them to be cut to stimulate economic activity.

In a letter to the American public on September 29, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused Trump of lying about the cost of the war and the state of the US economy, dismissing the president’s claims that oil prices would soon nosedive.

“Countries around the world have lost their faith in the US economy. Demand for American bonds has plummeted. In fact, countries are starting to offload their US bonds. Soon, the dam will break, and the economy will implode, causing, unfortunately, great pain for Americans for many many years,” the IRGC said.

“Americans need to wake up. They need to wrest control back from corrupt politicians. Now is the time, as the American political system is at its weakest.”

The US midterm elections are seen as a turning point in the conflict – not because of their potential outcome, but because of what Trump might do after the vote.

Trump has suggested that he would either strike a deal with Iran or return to a full-scale war after the November 3 legislative elections. He has also dismissed the idea that the vote will have any impact on his Iran policy.

“They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don’t realise is that I’m not running,” Trump said at the United Nations General Assembly last month.

“I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election. When it comes to Iran, it doesn’t even enter my mind. The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”

If the Democrats gain control of Congress, they can push for measures to curb Trump’s ability to continue the war, including through withholding funding for the military campaign.

But Toossi said there is a debate within Iran on the potential impact of a Democratic victory in November.

While some point to foreign policy hawks among the Democrats to argue that little would change, others say a midterm defeat would make him politically vulnerable and likely constrain his war powers.

“I don’t think they’re hedging their bets either way, and I don’t think it necessarily affects their overall strategy of increasing the costs [of war] regardless of whatever happens in November,” Toossi told Al Jazeera.