A deal between Moscow and Washington over exports of Russian diesel and fresh U.S. criticism of Ukraine’s leader mark important political victories for the Kremlin, reversing years of sanctions for its full-scale invasion of its neighbor.
While the size of Russia’s diesel exports is relatively small and unlikely to significantly impact prices, the revenue will help Moscow replenish its war coffers and — more importantly — undermine efforts by Kyiv and its European allies to put up a united front against President Vladimir Putin.
Along with President Donald Trump suggesting that Ukraine should get a new leader to replace President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the developments strengthen the Kremlin’s hand at a critical junction of the war, amid relentless attacks by Russia on energy systems and other vital infrastructure.
Ahead of next month’s midterm elections, Trump blamed a spike in diesel prices on Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, even though the U.S.-led war in Iran has sent global energy prices soaring.
Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, described the deal that Trump announced Friday as an “astonishing birthday present” for Putin, two days after he turned 74.
While Russia’s diesel exports could be a “drop in the ocean compared with actual overall demand,” Galeotti said it was “a gift for Putin, even if a single barrel of diesel is not exported.”
That’s because “it drives another and increasingly thick wedge between Trump and Zelensky,” he said in a podcast on Sunday.
Russian strikes continue despite Trump’s ‘energy truce’
Even though Trump declared Sunday that Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to an “energy truce” effective immediately, Russia continued attacking Ukraine’s energy facilities, said Zelenskyy, who has criticized the diesel deal as a show of weakness.
Zelenskyy emphasized that he is open to an energy ceasefire if it includes a halt to Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid.
Russia has not said whether it agrees to such a ceasefire, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday only that “contacts are ongoing.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov shrugged off Zelenskyy’s comments as an attempt “to promote his interest in a ceasefire.”
“I don’t think he deserves a respite,” Lavrov said.
Galeotti predicted that Putin is unlikely to halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities, which he sees as “absolutely central to his winter air war strategy.”
Russia stepped up aerial attacks on Ukraine in recent months with ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones, taking advantage of Kyiv’s shortage of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors whose stockpiles have been drained by the war in Iran.
Putin has repeatedly emphasized that Moscow wants a comprehensive, long-term agreement, not a temporary halt to hostilities.
Asked to comment on Zelenskyy’s statement that Ukraine needs a minimum of 60 days to prepare elections, Peskov said Putin could order a ceasefire only on the day of voting.
Russia’s fuel crisis causes doubts about export capacity
In recent months, Ukraine launched successful aerial attacks that knocked out over half of Russia’s oil refining capacity, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. The strikes caused a severe fuel crisis with long lines at gas stations, bringing the war home to millions.
Ukraine also methodically struck oil terminals at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and targeted dozens of tankers at sea, seeking to derail Moscow’s oil exports and drain Moscow’s revenues.
Putin acknowledged the damage but noted that Moscow is capable of inflicting much bigger blows to Ukraine.
Some officials and analysts questioned whether Russia will be able to provide diesel supplies under the deal announced by Trump.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski voiced doubts about it, saying that even the Russian capital is experiencing fuel shortages.
Others say Moscow actually has a surplus of diesel, now that demand has eased following the end of the harvest season.
“Russia planned to export more diesel anyway,” said Janis Kluge, head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Still, some Russian motorists exhausted by months of waiting at gas stations were worried the new deal could leave fewer supplies for the domestic market.
“I don’t think that’s very good, because you can see what’s going on at gas stations — people are standing in line around the clock,” said Marat Salavatov, waiting to refuel at a Moscow gas station.
Russian officials sought to quell such fears, saying there will be enough supply to keep the domestic market stable.
The volume of production is able “to fully satisfy the needs of the local market while delivering the agreed amounts to the global market,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in a government statement announcing the lifting of the diesel export ban that had been in place since July.
Trump’s criticism of Zelenskyy is seen as aiding Russia
In addition to the diesel deal, Trump unleashed biting criticism of Zelenskyy that marks perhaps the lowest point in their relationship since the disastrous Oval Office meeting in February 2025.
That could be even more important for the Kremlin.
Trump’s remark that it was time for a new president in Ukraine and his suggestion that Zelenskyy has not done enough to end the war topped the news on Russian state television and was widely discussed by pro-Kremlin commentators and military bloggers.
Officials in Kyiv viewed the diesel deal and the hostile rhetoric as a political move aimed at making Zelenskyy a scapegoat for U.S. voters ahead of the midterms, said Oleksandr Merezhko, a lawmaker from Zelenskyy’s party.
“We are not happy when our ally and partner gives money to a dictator who is killing us,” Merezhko said. “By demanding that Ukraine stop striking Russian oil refineries, Trump looks as though he cares more about the Russian war machine than about the civilians Putin is killing.”
Kyiv fears that easing sanctions without meaningful concessions from Russia could weaken Washington’s leverage over the Kremlin and further diminish prospects for fair terms to end the war.
The Trump-Zelenskyy tensions come as Kyiv continues to rely heavily on Washington for military assistance, including Patriot systems and vital intelligence. A disruption of that support could leave Ukraine more vulnerable.
Galeotti said Trump’s comments casting Zelenskyy as an obstacle to peace were “benefit No. 1 for Putin.”
Trump’s move also raises questions about the European Union’s efforts to go after Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers carrying oil to global markets, he said, observing that Europe has been left in a position “where it’s obviously just regarded as a vassal region that has to accept whatever policy comes from the White House.”
The diesel deal also will boost Russia’s credentials with developing countries, helping its posture as a great global player worthy of being a partner, Galeotti said.
Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center said the move could look like a “moment of triumph” for Putin.
“He has secured an economic deal, albeit a modest one, before a peace settlement, departing from Washington’s previous position,” Stanovaya said in a commentary.
She argued that Putin will see Trump’s current stance as “creating more favorable conditions for intensifying military pressure, aimed primarily at triggering an internal political breakdown in Ukraine rather than achieving a battlefield breakthrough.”
Still, Dmitry Medvedev, who served as a placeholder president in 2008-12 to allow Putin to get around constitutional term limits, warned against excessive optimism over Trump’s comments.
“Only our guys, ballistics and Geranium (drones) make victory closer,” said Medvedev, now deputy head of Russia’s Security Council.
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Samya Kullab in Kyiv, Ukraine, contributed.