It's time to strap in and get ready for things to get wild as we enter the second half of the 2026 college football regular season. With upsets galore on a weekly basis, the race for the College Football Playoff is wide open, and this weekend's results are going to play a big role in who gets in and who will have to settle for a normal bowl game.
Let's take a look at three of my favorite bets for Saturday's slate of games.
College Football Best Bets for Week 8
- California +20 (-118) vs. SMU
- UCF +6.5 (-102) vs. BYU
- Texas -3.5 (-102) vs. Ole Miss
California vs. SMU Best Bet
SMU is rightfully favored and will win this game, but I think the spread in this game is too lopsided. California's biggest strength is its secondary. The Golden Bears rank 31st in opponent EPA per pass and 51st in opponent pass success rate. That matches SMU's biggest strength, which is their passing offense.
The best way to beat California is to run the ball, but the Mustangs haven't been effective doing that this season, ranking 110th in EPA per rush and 54th in rush success rate.
The Golden Bears are outmatched, but their strengths and style of play will make this game close enough that they'll cover the spread.
Pick: California +20 (-118)
BYU vs. UCF Best Bet
The Cougars are certainly a good team, but they aren't without their flaws. They're outside the top 30 teams in the country in defensive success rate, and they're susceptible to the pass. Their main strength is their ability to run the ball, and if a team can slow them down in that area, they're going to be beatable. Unfortunately for them, run defense is the Knights' biggest strength, ranking 27th in opponent EPA per rush.
Don't underestimate UCF in this game.
Pick: UCF +6.5 (-102)
Ole Miss vs. Texas Best Bet
This is a fascinating game between good vs. good and bad vs. bad. What I mean by that is that the Ole Miss offense is clearly its strength, ranking as one of the better units in college football, while its defense is a significant weakness. The opposite is true for Texas, which thrives defensively but struggles to move the ball down the field.
That's why I'm going to take a step back, look at overall numbers, and buy low on the Longhorns. Despite losing two straight games, the Longhorns still rank ninth in net adjusted EPA per play and 26th in net success rate.
I'm a big believer in treating betting on football like the stock market, and based on last week's results, this is a great sell-high spot on the Rebels and a buy-low spot on the Longhorns. With Texas at home, I'll put my faith in the Longhorns.
Pick: Texas -3.5 (-102)
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