All of a sudden, that 24-team College Football Playoff format might be front and center for an SEC dreaming of getting five, six, ten of its members into the postseason tournament.
Yes, the CFP is supposed to use a new metric – which is really a twist on what it already utilizes – that gives more respect to the strengths of schedules. That’s supposed to boost the SEC – give, say, 2025 Texas credit for losing at Ohio State, even though it went 9-3 – but there are two issues with that, at least when it comes to what we’re projecting below.
First, the College Football Playoff always falls back on record ranking. If there’s a debate in the Grapevine meeting room – it’s nice; the food is tremendous – 10-2 is a lot easier to sell than 9-3, which is why we haven’t seen Power Four programs with three pre-conference championship losses leapfrog those with two or fewer.
And second, even though the upsets are coming – last Saturday probably wasn’t an outlier – there’s no way, no how, no chance the committee will put in a 9-3 power conference team in over an 11-1 Power Four program.
That’s where the SEC comes in. A few weeks ago, it looked like the conference would own the CFP. And then Florida started losing. So did LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. Now, as we’re doing this just past the midway point in the season, there are just four SEC teams left – Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee – with fewer than two losses, and all of them have one.
So how many SEC teams will make the College Football Playoff? Our best guess is three, and it’ll take a shoehorn to make that happen. (By the way, we’re still bullish on Kentucky, but we’re predicting a few close losses over the next few weeks.)
– Why the 24-Team CFP Probably Won’t Suck
Predicted College Football Playoff Final Top 12: Week 8
12. James Madison Dukes
Projected Final Record: 13-0
Remaining Games: at App State, Troy, at Southern Miss, at UConn, Coastal Carolina
This will likely be a big debate if Boise State keeps on rolling and goes 12-1 with a Pac-12 title, with its only loss coming to Oregon in the season opener. James Madison won’t have any Power Four wins – last year’s team didn’t either – but if it’s 13-0, it’ll be tough to leave out.
11. LSU Tigers
Projected Final Record: 9-3
Remaining Games: at Auburn, Alabama, Texas, at Tennessee, at Arkansas
Here’s where the strength of schedule emphasis kicks in. The call is that the committee would rank a three-loss LSU over a Big 12 or ACC team – it’s my favorite CFP line, because I swear I’ve seen a little box behind glass that the committee goes to when it’s in a pinch that says – … because it’s Alabama.
There’s still one more LSU loss coming somewhere – like, at Tennessee – but Alabama is everything in the brief history of the College Football Playoff. If you beat the Crimson Tide, the committee will see that, love it, and give you a cookie, a pat on the back, and a spot in the CFP. If LSU rocks the Tide, and that’s it for the losses, there’s your third team in, SEC.
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Projected Final Record: 11-2
Remaining Games: Virginia, Merrimack, at SMU, at Georgia Tech, Duke
This is where it gets super-tricky. Wake Forest has to beat SMU to get here, because the winner of that will likely play Miami for the ACC Championship. SMU also has to go to Notre Dame, so if it beats the Demon Deacons but loses to the Irish, it’ll be 10-2 and won’t get in without winning the ACC title.
Got all of that? Basically, Wake Forest has to win its next five games, or put Utah, BYU, or Texas Tech in this spot.
9. Tennessee Volunteers
Projected Final Record: 10-3
Remaining Games: at South Carolina, Kentucky, at Texas A&M, LSU, at Vanderbilt
Tennessee only has the one loss to Texas. We’re calling that it’ll lose one more regular season game – like, at South Carolina or on a bad day at Texas A&M – but go play Georgia for the SEC Championship. A predicted win over LSU, and last week’s win over Alabama – again … because it’s Alabama – will get the Vols in at the 9-seed after losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected Final Record: 11-1
Remaining Games: at Minnesota, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, at Illinois, Nebraska
This is a bit of a reach since we’re not totally sold that the Hawkeyes will go unbeaten the rest of the way to get this spot at 11-1, but they should be favored in every remaining game. Even at 10-2, they’re in, just not this high.
7. Indiana Hoosiers
Projected Final Record: 11-1
Remaining Games: at Michigan, Minnesota, USC, at Washington, Purdue
The team that came within a toe-tap of beating Ohio State in an epic ending rolls through the rest of its slate, and actually catches a bit of a break by not playing for the Big Ten Championship – it gets extra time off before a first round home game because …
6. UCLA Bruins
Projected Final Record: 12-1
Remaining Games: Michigan State, Nevada, at Minnesota, Illinois, at Michigan, USC
We’ve come this far in our year-long prediction that UCLA would be good – maybe not this good – helped by a schedule with no Ohio State or Indiana, and with Oregon out of the way and Michigan now a big bag of blah.
So let’s dive in all the way and call that UCLA wins out, goes 12-0, and loses the Big Ten Championship. Even if the Bruins lose once, or even twice, over the last six games, they’ll still be in. No way the committee will leave out a 10-2 Big Ten team.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
Projected Final Record: 11-2
Remaining Games: Florida (in Atlanta), at Ole Miss, Missouri, at South Carolina, Georgia Tech
Georgia loses once more along the way on a bad day at South Carolina, or maybe to Florida, but the key will be beating Ole Miss in Oxford – if that goes the other way, this whole puzzle changes. Or, the Bulldogs win out, win the SEC Championship, and get the No. 1 spot.
4. Miami Hurricanes
Projected Final Record: 12-1
Remaining Games: Pitt, at North Carolina, at Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia Tech, Boston College
This will start to get twisted fast, so hang on.
The Hurricanes might have looked rocky against Florida State, but they beat everyone else in the conference and take the ACC Championship, but along the way, they lose to …
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Projected Final Record: 11-1
Remaining Games: Navy (in Foxborough, MA), Miami, Boston College, SMU, at Syracuse
There’s no conference title game to play for, but a win over Miami, and a dominant run over everyone else, gets the Irish at least the No. 3 seed behind …
2. BYU Cougars
Projected Final Record: 12-1
Remaining Games: at UCF, Arizona State, at Utah, Baylor, at Kansas, Cincinnati
BYU will lose at Utah, but will make up for it with a strong win in the Big 12 Championship. Utah and Texas Tech will lose at least once on the road over the next few weeks, and then one of them will lose to the Cougars in the title game and be left out of the CFP.
The committee will want to put several other teams in this spot, but the BYU win over Notre Dame will carry the weight in the room.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected Final Record: 12-1
Remaining Games: at USC, Oregon, Northwestern, at Nebraska, Michigan
There won’t be anything pretty about it, but the Buckeyes will keep finding ways to win until Julian Sayin is back. (At the moment, he’s expected to be out “several weeks” with his injured shoulder, but this is based on the assumption that he’ll be back in time for the Big Ten Championship.)
If this all plays out like we’re suggesting, Ohio State will be the only team to beat Iowa, Indiana, and, in the Big Ten Championship, UCLA. That gets it the No. 1 seed.