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Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s NYPD commissioner could be the biggest threat if she runs against him when he’s up for reelection in 2029, a new poll found.
Honan Strategy Group found the democratic socialist mayor has the support of 54% of likely voters in a multi-candidate Democratic Party primary – but Tisch runs second with 17% support despite never having indicated she’s seeking to make the jump to politics.
The stunning survey comes as Mamdani faces calls to fire Tisch from law enforcement reform activists and fellow members of the Democratic Socialists of America in the aftermath of an ICE shooting in the Bronx.
“Jessica Tisch could potentially be a viable contender for mayor,” pollster Bradley Honan said. “I think Mamdani is going to keep Tisch close.”
Hizzoner has said he has no plans to cut ties with Tisch, who he kept on from the administration of previous Mayor Eric Adams. The national DSA and some lefty politicians have called for her job after federal immigration agents shot a Dominican Republic man and alleged gangmember who tried to flee from an arrest in a car with a 5-year-old passenger.
Local sanctuary laws prevent city cops from cooperating with ICE in most cases. NYPD officers were not involved in the shooting, but Mamdani has said his administration will investigate the local response including the department’s handling of protests in the wake of the shooting.
The Honan poll found Mamdani with strong numbers in a ranked-choice reelection campaign as he comes to the close of his first year in office, despite the surprising numbers from Tisch – who is riding high as most crimes in the city trend downward.
The poll also found Mamdani coming out strong in hypothetical head-to-head matchups:
- Mamdani leads Tisch 54%-25%.
- Mamdani leads Menin 56%-19%
- Mamdani leads city Comptroller Mark Levine 55%-16%
He also held a 40-point lead over Queens Borough President Donovan Richards and a 45-point lead over Bronx Borough President Vanessa Gibson.
Meanwhile, 73% of Democrats approve of his job performance, including 54% who strongly approve.
Two-thirds of Democrats rate the job Mamdani is doing as mayor as excellent or good, including 45% who say excellent, while 31% rate his job performance as fair or poor.
Another 31% rate his job performance as fair or poor.
Overall, 56% of Democrats surveyed want him reelected while only 29% say it’s time for someone new.
“Mamdani is riding high,” said Honan, CEO and president of the namesake polling firm.
“Mamdani wins a majority of likely Democratic primary voters in a multi-candidate field, and no challenger comes close. His coalition rests on democratic socialists, very liberal voters, young voters, and Asian and Hispanic Democrats.”
But his support is softer among moderates, homeowners, Jewish voters, Manhattan voters, older voters, and higher-income and post-graduate voters, the survey found. Tisch draws her strongest support in those groups, according to the poll.
Honan also found Mamdani has work to do to win over black voters – with 47% supporting Mamdani for reelection while 42% are undecided.
Without Mamdani on the ballot, the field is wide open: Tisch leads at 23%, with 43% undecided and 19% wanting someone else.
The Honan Strategy Group conducted the text-to-web survey among 967 likely Democratic primary voters from Oct. 2-7. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points