Fri, 16 October 2026
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Fri, 16 October 2026
Thomas Hardy’s world-renowned novel 'The Mayor of Casterbridge' poignantly depicts the tragic dilemma of farmers: when they dry their harvested grain on a sunny day, a sudden downpour washes it all away; yet when they hold back fearing rain, bright sunshine emerges and their grain rots. Nepal is primarily an agricultural country. Just last week, Nepali farmers were forced to face a similar irony reminiscent of Hardy’s novel. Relying on the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology's forecast, which had predicted only light showers or drizzles, many farmers cut their paddy crops. But, heavy rains immersed their harvested crops completely, and in many places, shattered the ripe grain right off the stalks. Had the weather forecast been accurate, the farmers would not have had to suffer this misfortune.
World-famous French author Guy de Maupassant once remarked that farmers and courtesans are the only individuals who wear no masks. This infers that farmers are true to their profession; they have no leisure for trickery or artificial pretenses. Yet, the irony faced by them, who contribute a major share to Nepal’s economy, is beyond explanation. During the planting season, farmers must fight a fierce battle to secure chemical fertilisers. Getting fertiliser is like winning the Mahabharata war for them. On the other hand, finding farm labour is extremely difficult, and even when found, high wages must be paid. Once they manage to save the crop through these hurdles, they become sleepless during harvesting time. There is always a persistent threat of rain or hail destroying their yield.
Even after harvesting, the problem of finding a market remains equally challenging. They are forced to sell their products at low prices immediately after the harvest, only to buy back the same grain at unreasonable rates later when they need it for themselves. In reality, neither do the farmers receive a fair price, nor do the consumers get to buy at affordable rates. Middlemen skim off the profits, leaving the entire burden on the shoulders of consumers and farmers. Complaints are heard even in Parliament regarding the government's duty to act in the best interests of farmers and consumers as expected. It is vital for the government to be sensitive towards both groups. It is entirely natural for farmers to hold such expectations. However, at this moment, during the paddy harvest season, even an accurate weather forecast would mean much more to them.
It is true that Nepal has made considerable progress in weather forecasting over the past 20 years. Yet, significant challenges remain in predicting weather at the local level. Experts say that Nepal's topography is highly varied and measurements taken at one location do not accurately apply to conditions in nearby places or on different mountain slopes. In spite of the many challenges, our forecasting has improved compared to 20 years ago. We now have more access to satellite images, automated weather stations, numerical weather prediction models, and data from other countries. We know that, in spite of advanced technologies, forecasting cannot be 100 per cent accurate; however, the government should pay meticulous attention to providing essential tools to the concerned department, in order to avoid possible natural calamities and damage to ripe harvests.
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