The recent maneuvering of a Russian military satellite dangerously close to a Finnish radar satellite was a deliberate provocation and could have resulted in a major accident, physicist and Riigikogu member Mario Kadastik (Reform) said.
Earlier this month, a Russian-made satellite may have come within less than a mile of a commercial Earth-observation satellite that may be used to provide national security services to countries such as Ukraine, CNN reported.
"The observation satellite, called Iceye-X36, is operated by Iceye, a multinational company with offices in the United States, Finland and several other countries across Europe and Asia," the outlet wrote.
"The fact that the Russians simply came and parked their satellite a few dozen meters away is unprecedented. And it is also extremely dangerous," Kadastik said Wednesday to ERR's morning radio show "Vikerhommik".
He explained that because satellites travel at very high speeds, a collision can occur very easily at such a short distance: "When you are that close, if you make a small correction maneuver, a difference of less than 0.1 seconds in thruster firing time can be enough to change the orbit by a couple of dozen meters. And that means a collision occurs. So this is extremely risky activity in any case, and it was definitely a provocation."
Kadastik said the radar satellite built by Finnish space company Iceye that was targeted was designed for Earth observation. Because it uses radar, its advantage is that it can measure and monitor what is happening on the ground both in darkness and through clouds, providing an overview of activity on the ground in almost any weather.
"Because its resolution is quite good, around 20 centimeters, it can identify vehicles and various objects quite well. And the Russians' main interest is that Iceye is one of those whose data is regularly provided to Ukraine about what is happening in the border areas. In other words, it is capable of imaging that area several times an hour and showing where various objects are moving," he explained.
'Not accidental activity'
According to Kadastik, Russia sent its Kosmos 2612 satellite close to Iceye, and according to some sources, every time the Finnish radar satellite tried to move away, the Russian satellite maneuvered back into its vicinity.
"So in that sense, this was not accidental activity in any way. Because accidental close encounters happen all the time, especially now that there are so many satellites up there. But deliberately adjusting orbits to get progressively closer and then parking alongside it at almost zero relative velocity. Well, what exactly was the purpose of that?" Kadastik said.
He believes one possible motive could be espionage, but thinks this is unlikely as it is fairly well known how radar satellites work.
"Rather, it was probably because a metallic object near a radar interferes with its operation, meaning that it is impossible to operate in certain frequency bands because it scatters [the radar signal] so strongly and creates so much noise. /---/ Perhaps it stayed near Iceye for a certain period precisely to conceal, for example, the movements of certain Russian units," Kadastik speculated.
"And the other possibility is simply a show of force, the Russians' classic big-stick approach – I come up behind you with a big stick and see whether you react! I would consider this a hybrid attack in any case. The only question is at what level we classify it," he said.
NATO response
The MP said this is another escalation by Russia, but in a new domain, and a response should come from NATO. Especially as the satellite was developed by a Finnish company and licensed and launched by its U.S. subsidiary.
"Such a strong escalation in the space domain is, I would say, a very significant escalation, precisely because of its potential impact. I certainly hope there will be some kind of reaction from NATO. Because the Russians are doing what they usually do — trying to provoke without causing enormous consequences," he said. "The classic NATO handbook still provides for responses based on the consequences. And if there were essentially no consequences, then the question is what the response should be," he said.
Kadastik explained that activities in space are relatively well regulated by the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, because what happens in space affects all parties. There are no borders there, as virtually all satellites that are not geostationary travel over the entire Earth, and therefore rules must be followed so that everyone can coexist.
"Traditionally, any approach within a few kilometers is considered something that must be closely coordinated with all parties to avoid a collision. Because a collision in space is not like a collision between two cars. A space collision has quite dramatic consequences, and that is why [traffic] is very tightly coordinated — corrective maneuvers are made tens or hundreds of kilometers in advance," he said.
"Because the worst thing is the collision effect, the Kessler syndrome, that can result from it," Kadastik said.
He recalled the Hollywood film Gravity, which illustrates well what a large number of fast-moving objects in space means: "This is what can happen when two spacecraft collide: two objects suddenly become a couple of thousand objects. They spread out across the orbit, their orbital speeds are 27,000 kilometers per hour, and if you approach at even a slightly intersecting angle, it is like a serious burst of machine-gun fire tearing through you."
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