BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 17 October, 12:50 p.m. ET · Source: Datafolha, Folha de S.Paulo
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Saturday 17 October, the Datafolha polling institute published a survey showing 80% of Brazilians back lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16.
- The numbers 80% support the change and 18% oppose it, according to interviews with 2,520 people on 13 and 14 October, with a 2-point margin of error.
- The divide Support is 89% among Flávio Bolsonaro voters and 70% among Lula voters, so both camps lean in favour.
- The change Datafolha found 79% support in mid-June, so the result is stable within the margin of error.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 12:42 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 24% and 22%), as of 17 October, 12:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Flávio wants 16 for all crimes and Lula only for heinous ones, and the Senate has delayed its public security amendment, which the opposition wants to extend with the cut.
A new Datafolha poll published on Saturday 17 October shows 80% of Brazilians support lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16. The survey of 2,520 people, taken on 13 and 14 October, found 18% opposed, ahead of the Brazil election 2026 vote on Sunday 25 October.
Support reaches 89% among voters of Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, and 70% among voters of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president. The result adds a public-safety measure to the Brazil election polls that US investors and readers already follow.
What the Datafolha Poll Found
Datafolha interviewed 2,520 Brazilians aged 16 or older on 13 and 14 October, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points, SBT News reported. It found 80% in favour of lowering the age and 18% against.
The same survey series put support at 79% in June, when Datafolha interviewed 2,004 people on 17 and 18 June, SBT News reported. The four-month gap shows a stable majority, because 1 point sits inside the margin of error.
How Lula and Flávio Voters Differ
Among voters who back Flávio Bolsonaro, 89% support the change, Brasil em Folhas reported. Among voters who back Lula, 70% do.
Seven in ten of the president’s own voters therefore favour the idea. Flávio has made lowering the age a campaign banner, while Lula has said he would accept a cut to 16 only for heinous crimes, as our earlier report explained.
Why the Issue Matters in the Runoff
The Senate has delayed its public security amendment, which the opposition wants to extend with a cut to 16, as we reported. The question also divided Lula’s Workers’ Party.
The poll gives Lula little room to oppose the idea outright. It also shows that a hard line on crime reaches voters on both sides of the race.
What It Means for US Readers
If you invest in Brazilian assets, this poll does not move the horse race, which the latest runoff surveys still show as close. It does show which security promises are likely to survive whichever candidate wins on 25 October.
If you follow US politics or migration, note that public safety, not only the economy, now shapes how Brazilians vote. The explainer on the security amendment lays out the legal path.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 12:42 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$185.3 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on new surveys. Polymarket is an online exchange, and we show its prices as a signal, never as advice.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 17 October, 12:40 pm ET (17:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Datafolha has not published whether the issue changes any voter’s choice between the two candidates. Support for a general idea does not show how voters weigh Lula’s narrower plan against Flávio’s broader one.
It is also not known whether the Senate will vote on the amendment before the runoff. A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Brazilians support a lower age of criminal responsibility?
Datafolha found 80% in favour and 18% against, from interviews with 2,520 people on 13 and 14 October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.
Do Lula and Flávio voters agree on the issue?
Support is 89% among Flávio Bolsonaro voters and 70% among Lula voters. Both groups lean in favour, though the gap is 19 points.
Has support changed since June?
Datafolha found 79% support in June and 80% in October. The difference is within the margin of error.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What is the age of criminal responsibility in Brazil?
It is 18, so younger offenders face a separate juvenile system. The proposals lower it to 16, in all cases or only for heinous crimes.
Sources: SBT News, 17 October 2026; Brasil em Folhas, October 2026; SBT News (June survey), 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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