New Delhi: India remains the fastest-growing major steel market globally, with steel demand projected to expand by 7.9 per cent in 2026 to 172.4 million tonnes, followed by an 8.0 per cent increase in 2027 to 186.2 million tonnes.
The worldsteel Short Range Outlook October 2026, released by the World Steel Association, noted that the momentum is sustained by infrastructure construction, steady private real estate, machinery investments, and automotive manufacturing.
As per the report, global steel demand will remain essentially unchanged in 2026 at 1,722 million tonnes compared to 2025, before returning to a growth of 1.7 per cent in 2027 to reach 1,752 million tonnes. A prolonged property downturn in China and geopolitical disruption across the Middle East continue to weigh on near-term consumption.
Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, said, “The trajectory we set out in April holds, but the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than we had expected. Global steel demand is now forecast to be flat in 2026 rather than to grow modestly, and to grow by 1.7% in 2027 rather than 2.2%. Almost the whole of that revision is a China story.”
Calcerrada noted that outside China, demand expands by 1.5 per cent this year and accelerates to 4.0 per cent in 2027.
“The recovery we described in April is therefore not weaker; its momentum is being masked by the scale of China’s structural contraction and compounded by energy-market disruptions stemming from ongoing instability in the Middle East,” he added.
Chinese demand is expected to contract by 2.0 per cent in 2026 and shrink further by 1.0 per cent in 2027. A persistent real estate slump and negative infrastructure spending continue to offset manufacturing gains.
Across developing economies excluding China, demand is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2026 before accelerating to 5.1 per cent in 2027. The moderation this year stems largely from the Gulf Cooperation Council region, where demand is expected to drop by about 11 per cent due to deferred projects and conflict, before staging an 11.3 per cent rebound in 2027. Within ASEAN-5, growth is pegged at 5.2 per cent in 2026, led by Vietnam reaching nearly 30 million tonnes of apparent steel use.
In developed nations, demand is forecast to expand by 1.0 per cent in 2026 and 2.2 per cent in 2027. United States steel demand is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027, driven by data centres and energy infrastructure.
European Union demand is expected to decline by 0.3 per cent this year following pre-CBAM inventory build-up in 2025, before climbing 3.1 per cent in 2027. Japan and South Korea to see shallow recoveries, with Japanese demand rising 0.9 per cent in 2026 and Korean demand growing 1.8 per cent.
Emphasising the broader medium-term prospects, Calcerrada stated that “One of the most important messages coming from our October 2026 forecasts is a reaffirmation of the expectations for a meaningful turnaround in developed world industrial activity and steel demand in 2027.”