Concerning economic data pose issues for GOP down midterm stretch

Recent data paints a bleak picture of the economy, lending Republicans another blow as midterm early-voting is underway.

Annual inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose from 3.4 percent in August to 3.7 percent in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Wednesday.

A day later, the BLS reported that wholesale prices in September experienced their highest monthly jump in more than four years. 

The GOP, who are already saddled with President Trump’s unpopularity and an Iran war that is increasing costs, now look for a way to flip the economy’s script.

“It’s a continuation of bad news, confirming what voters are telling us every day of what they’re experiencing,” Republican strategist Doug Heye told The Hill.

In the last election cycle, Trump and Republicans campaigned on lowering the cost of essentials after inflation soared to a 40-year high under former President Joe Biden.

But inflation, as measured by the CPI, rebounded under Biden to 3 percent in January 2025. Since then, it has increased by 0.7 percentage points and reached the highest point since May last month. 

“There were pre-existing problems, no doubt about it, but they’ve been exacerbated proactively by the president, and so that’s why Republicans find themselves where they are,” argued Heye, who is also a former communications director of the Republican National Committee. 

Polling shows that voters blame Trump for persistent inflation, with roughly six in 10 respondents to a recent Associated Press-NORC survey saying the economy was worse off since the president returned to office. 

Nearly 51 percent of respondents to a NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ poll, The Hill’s partners, conducted earlier this month said they are casting their midterm ballot to “oppose” Trump and his policies. 

Jim Kessler, the executive vice president for policy at the center-left think tank Third Way, said the latest economic data only makes life harder for Republicans.

“If the numbers had come in a lot better both in September and October on inflation, and the Trump administration had something to say, then people might feel that things are turning around,” Kessler told The Hill.

Democrats have pounced on the data as they seek control of Congress for the next chunk of Trump’s term.

Democrats on the congressional Joint Economic Committee released a report this week showing that gas price spikes amid the Iran war have cost the average American family $856. 

“Instead of the relief President Trump promised, his war, tariffs, and other reckless policies continue to make it harder for families to afford the basics,” said Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), the ranking member of the committee.

Hassan’s focus on cost-of-living concerns tracks with what Democrats around the country are saying ahead of Election Day.

Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright told The Hill on Friday his party is “unified” around affordability for the first time in his lifetime.

“All of them are talking about gas prices. Most of them are talking about … the high cost of living,” added Seawright, an adviser to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic National Committee. 

“We are not only identifying the problem, but we’re offering the solutions to the problems that Republicans have created,” he added.

Kessler traced the messaging shift from Democrats to last year’s record-long government shutdown, which stemmed from the party pushing for an extension of since-expired Affordable Care Act premium subsidies.

During that funding lapse, Democrats’ focus “got tighter” and focused on “the things that the average voter cares about,” he said.

“The most important thing about an election is to listen to voters and to reflect what they’re feeling, not to tell them what they ought to feel and what they ought to care about,” Kessler added.

Trump and Republicans have sought to turn the tide, accusing Democrats of being “communists” after multiple left-wing candidates won primaries earlier this year — also pointing fingers at the Biden administration.

Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, told NewsNation’s Hannah Brandt this week that Americans “were worse off” due to the former Democratic president’s policies.

Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee added that “President Trump and Republicans are working to lower costs and repair the damage Democrats left behind after years of reckless spending.”

“Democrats can campaign on the pain they helped create, but Republicans are focused on lowering the cost of living, cutting taxes, and putting more money back in Americans’ pockets,” Marinella said.

Prices, notably for gas, diesel and fertilizer, have risen since the U.S. and Israel launched the Iran war. While the conflict continues, Trump has attempted to address the economic spillover effects, recently touting a deal with Russia to increase that country’s supply of diesel fuel to the global marketplace.

But gas and diesel prices remain significantly above pre-war totals. The average price of a gallon of regular gas is roughly $4.33 as of Friday, while diesel costs $6.33 per gallon, according to AAA.

A year ago, a gallon of gas and diesel cost about $3.06 and $3.65 on average, respectively, per AAA. 

Wholesale energy prices rose by 10.8 percent from August to September, the BLS reported this week. That was higher than the 10.5-percent increase in March, the first month of the war, and indicates energy markets are still feeling the squeeze.

Seawright, though, argued that the Iran war “just put a bow” on the difficult economic picture for the GOP, citing Trump’s tariffs.

Heye also faulted Trump for Republicans’ midterm prospects, claiming Democrats have not “needed” to effectively capitalize on the landscape given how a majority of Americans view the president.

“The reality is, when you have a president whose approval rating’s at 36 percent three weeks before the vote … if you’re running against that, you’re in pretty good shape,” Heye said.