The Ever Lotus. Photo: Buggi Porschien
Transpacific container freight rates are likely to remain higher than on Asia-Europe for some time, as stronger economic conditions in the US support import demand and weaker European growth weighs on cargo volumes and freight rates.
Evergreen general manager Wu Kuang Hui said the rate divergence had become increasingly pronounced: “strong on US routes, weak on Europe routes”.
And he said on Friday he expected the stronger US market to continue supporting transpacific rates at a premium to Asia-Europe rates, and there was “no reason to be pessimistic” about the US routes before the lunar new year 2027 as “there are record-high import volumes at several major US ports, low inventory levels, and optimistic consumer demand”.
US imports from the Far East have grown about 5.1%, but volumes to Europe have increased more rapidly, by 12.2%. However, the weaker European economic backdrop has translated into reduced pricing power on Asia-Europe trades.
European spot volumes have increased significantly, but freight rates that surged in April, following the US-Iran conflict, have declined steadily since July.
On Friday, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index showed Shanghai-US east and west coast rates relatively stable, at $10,524 and $7,584 per 40ft, respectively. Shanghai-Europe rates continued to decline, losing 3%, to $2,274 per teu.
The gradual return of container vessels to the Red Sea and Suez Canal is adding further downward pressure on Asia-Europe rates by restoring effective capacity. Although geopolitical risks in the Red Sea have not been fundamentally resolved, carriers are increasingly resuming the routings.
By contrast, transpacific capacity remains supported by robust US import demand. Mr Wu noted that US spot rates were significantly higher than negotiated rates in Q4 last year, and expects long-term contract prices next year to exceed this year’s.
Potential US tariff adjustments could provide additional support.
Mr Wu said: “Importers could receive about $160bn in tax rebates, potentially allowing lower end-product prices and higher inventory levels, which could stimulate further imports.
“The US outlook is not without risks. A potential inflation-driven interest-rate hiking cycle could eventually weaken terminal demand, making the second quarter of next year less certain. Nevertheless, we expect the near-term outlook to remain favourable.”
Meanwhile, congestion is helping absorb capacity across both trades. Singapore’s port utilisation has exceeded 90%, while severe congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo has contributed to vessel bunching and schedule delays.
Evergreen’s strong market outlook comes amid a sharp increase in the carrier’s revenue. In September, consolidated revenue reached TWD49.7bn ($1.56bn) up 64% year on year, while cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2026 rose 15%, to TWD338.4bn ($10.61bn).
Mr Wu said booking conditions through November were expected to remain favourable, followed by another seasonal increase in December, ahead of Chinese New Year.
Evergreen operates 242 vessels with capacity of 2.04m teu, giving the seventh-largest shipping line a 5.9% market share. The Taiwanese operator plans to expand the fleet to around 290 vessels, 2.74m teu, by 2030.