Putin Expands His Hybrid War to the Black Sea

It is starting to heat up again in the Black Sea as Russian drones are attacking commercial shipping in NATO “exclusive economic zones” off the coast of Bulgaria and Romania.

Problem is, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte cannot seem to decide if these attacks warrant any Article 5 discussion, “It’s a matter of discussion whether the exclusive economic zone is included in the Article 5-type reaction or not. And it seems that until now, it isn’t – which raised a lot of questions.”

Really?

It certainly should at least trigger a NATO Article 4-type discussion: “The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, 1) the territorial integrity; 2) political independence; or 3) security of any of the Parties is threatened.”

Check, check, and check.

Commercial vessels being attacked by Russian drones in the Black Sea “exclusive economic zones” of Bulgaria and Romania certainly fits that the criteria for Article 4 discussion, but the sinking of a Turkish owned commercial vessel – the Royad Mammadov – should be the very definition.

Poland triggered Article 4 discussions after the country reported 19 “breaches” of their airspace by Russian drones in September of last year.

Between Oct. 6 and 15, drone attacks attributed to Russia targeted seven commercial ships in the Black Sea, sinking three.

Other Topics of Interest

Kyiv’s Cosmo Multimall Takes Heavy Damage in Russian Attack

The mall’s administration has not yet released an assessment of the damage or said when Cosmo Multimall will reopen.

Putin’s ‘no rules’ directive

As we wrote last week in our Thursday National Security column in The Hill:

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his generals to abandon the rules of war and step up attacks on civilian targets and nuclear energy sites.

“He [Putin] said there are no rules now.”

This fits the definition of total war – unrestricted in terms of the weapons used, the territory or combatants involved and the objectives pursued, in total disregard of the laws of war.

Targeting commercial vessels in the Black Sea is simply an escalation in Putin’s hybrid war against NATO – he has taken it up a notch.

The Kremlin’s end state

The mission is two-fold: isolate Ukraine and intimidate NATO.

In military doctrine and mission command – Purpose, Method, and End State are used to articulate a commander’s intent in a mission statement. For the Kremlin, their mission statement reads like this:

Purpose: Under the directive of Putin’s “no rules now,” the Russian military will use all means available to deny Ukraine assistance – military, humanitarian, or economic – from NATO or European Union member states.

Method: A strategic messaging and intimidation campaign utilizing drones in the Black Sea to identify, track, target and interdict commercial vessels transporting commerce to and from Ukrainian ports along NATO’s exclusive economic zone off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria.

End state: Isolate Ukraine and prevent their products from reaching global markets, drive-up insurance cost for commercial shipping in the Black Sea, and dissuade further support to Ukraine by the international community.

Last week, after two commercial vessels were struck by Russian drones off the coast of Bulgaria, Prime Minister Rumen Radev said: “This is an unacceptable attack in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. It is a blatant violation of international law and maritime law… What is happening is seriously disrupting shipping in the Black Sea, driving up insurance costs even further and making shipping extremely difficult.”

Exactly as Putin planned. And with Rutte’s lame response as to whether or not the “exclusive economic zone is included in the Article 5-type reaction or not,” Putin has once again put NATO in check.

What to do about Russia?

As President Donald Trump increasingly becomes a wildcard, Coalitions of the Willing and bilateral security agreements are becoming more of the “new normal.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz got it right during his recent visit to Kyiv in early October, warning that “If Russia is not stopped, it will turn its war machine against us sooner or later.” But it took an attempted drone attack – one that the German government said Russia was responsible for – at the Leipzig airport on Aug. 4 to generate a response.

Poland gets it. So to do the Baltic States, Finland and Norway – or, as we call them, New NATO.

Putin is fomenting divisiveness in NATO. In an alliance where a unanimous consensus is required for political and military decisions, he has already secured at least one NO vote in Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Fico stated in September that he would not fulfill NATO Article 5 obligations or send Slovak soldiers to defend allies if a wider conflict with Russia is triggered. During a speech in Prešov he said: “I do not want Slovakia to be part of any military conflict because of some Article 5. As prime minister, I will do everything to ensure that Slovakia is never drawn into a military conflict.”

And while NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, US Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich – who is dual-hatted as the Commander, US European Command (EUCOM) – outlined a three-pronged “Theory of Victory” strategy called “block, blunt, and break” at the Warsaw Security Forum in Poland, it still requires a unanimous decision to execute. And at the speed of NATO, that is not likely to arrive in time.

NATO needs a plan to confront Russia now

No one wants to stand up directly to Russian aggression for fear of their response. They are still treating Russia like the 1980s boogeyman it was rather than what Ukraine has exposed them to be over the past four and a half years.

The more NATO and the EU give – the more Russia will take. Yesterday it was airspace violations over eastern Europe, acts of sabotage, and errant missiles and drones impacting in NATO territory.

Today it is attacks on commercial shipping in NATO waters and the possibility of “limited Russian incursions” into NATO.

What will tomorrow bring?

As former US Army Chief of Staff Gen. Gordon R. Sullivan taught us, “Hope is not a method.”

Sanctions and lawyer talk are not working. NATO needs a plan now to stop Russian attacks in Ukraine – or as Merz said, “they will turn [their] war machine against us.”

Europe’s fate resides in Ukraine’s outcome – not in some “block, blunt, and break” strategy. They should start acting like it.

Copyright 2026. Jonathan E. Sweet and Mark C. Toth. All rights reserved.

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the cofounders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.