BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 3:28 p.m. ET · Source: Roberto Cláudio, Instagram video; O Povo
Key Facts
- Who Roberto Cláudio, a physician and former mayor of Fortaleza, was the running mate of former presidential candidate Ciro Gomes in the Ceará governor race.
- What happened On Friday 16 October he said in an Instagram video that he will vote for Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff.
- The runoff Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October, nine days from now, with Flávio Bolsonaro facing President Lula.
- Ciro Gomes Ciro Gomes, leader of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), has not endorsed either candidate.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 3:28 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 24% and 23%), as of 16 October, 4:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Whether the endorsement moves any votes in Ceará, or whether Ciro Gomes follows, is not known.
Roberto Cláudio, the former running mate of Ciro Gomes in Ceará, announced on Friday 16 October that he will vote for Flávio Bolsonaro in the Brazil election 2026 runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro is the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro who faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Sunday 25 October.
Cláudio is a former mayor of Fortaleza, the capital of Ceará state in Brazil’s Northeast, a region that has long backed Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT). His move matters because Polymarket, a prediction market, already gives Flávio Bolsonaro the better odds, and the Brazil election odds react quickly to news of this kind.
What Roberto Cláudio Said
In the video, Cláudio said: “I vote for the possibility of change, which is why I now vote Flávio 22,” according to O Povo. The number 22 is the ballot number of Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL).
He told Blog do Eliomar he would “bet on change,” adding that “we already know the certain path of disaster.” He also said Lula and Ceará Governor Elmano de Freitas showed “mockery in terrible taste” toward Ciro Gomes after the vote, O Povo reported.
How the Ceará Race Ended
Governor Elmano de Freitas of the PT won re-election in the first round on 4 October with 53.19% of the vote, O Povo reported. Ciro Gomes finished second with 46.22%.
Cláudio belongs to the Brazil Union party (União Brasil), while Ciro Gomes leads the PSDB. The PSDB has left its members free to choose in the runoff, according to O Povo.
Where Ciro Gomes Stands
Ciro Gomes, a former presidential candidate, had not endorsed Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro by Friday afternoon, O Povo reported. Cláudio spoke for himself and not for the former ticket, Blog do Eliomar said.
Our report on the latest Datafolha survey shows the Brazil runoff poll at 51% to 49% of valid votes, a technical tie. That poll was published on 15 October, before this endorsement, and the full list is in the Brazil election polls tracker.
What It Means for US Readers
A single endorsement from a defeated running mate does not decide a national runoff. It does show that the opposition to Lula is gathering names in the Northeast, which is where the PT has drawn much of its strength.
If you hold Brazilian stocks or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, headlines like this can move prices until 25 October. The winner will also shape Brazil’s trade and diplomacy with Washington for the next four years.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 3:28 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.8 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.3% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 23%
As of 16 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Ciro Gomes will endorse a candidate, or whether Cláudio’s supporters in Fortaleza will follow his lead. No poll yet measures the effect of the endorsement.
Datafolha and other pollsters are due to publish new runoff surveys before the vote. Any poll shows opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Roberto Cláudio and what did he announce?
Roberto Cláudio is a physician and former mayor of Fortaleza who ran as Ciro Gomes’s vice-governor candidate in Ceará. On Friday 16 October he said he will vote for Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff.
Has Ciro Gomes endorsed a candidate in the Brazil runoff?
No, not as of Friday 16 October. His party, the PSDB, has left its members free to choose.
When is the Brazil runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, nine days after this announcement. The winner is either President Lula or Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Does the endorsement change the Brazil runoff polls?
No poll has measured it yet. The latest Datafolha survey, published on 15 October before the endorsement, had Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes.
What do prediction markets say about the Brazil runoff?
On Polymarket, Flávio Bolsonaro stood at 76.8% and Lula at 22.5% on 16 October at 3:28 p.m. ET. These are bets, not polls.
Sources: O Povo, 16 October 2026; O Povo (column Vertical), 16 October 2026; Blog do Eliomar, 16 October 2026; O Povo, 5 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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