BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 18 October, 6:45 p.m. ET · Source: petition to the electoral court (TSE), as reported by Poder360, Metrópoles and Exame
Key Facts
- What happened Lula’s campaign asked the electoral court (TSE) on Saturday 17 October for free transport and personal notices for voters whose polling place moved.
- The numbers The Electoral Justice moved 4,352 voting sections, or 0.87% of the national total, ahead of the runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- The biggest shifts São Paulo has 982 moved sections, Minas Gerais 514, Rio de Janeiro 431 and Bahia 312.
- The deadline asked The petition wants regional electoral courts to publish every changed section, with old and new addresses, within 48 hours.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.1% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (18 October, 6:25 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 80% (Lula: 21% and 21%), as of 18 October, 6:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open We found no ruling by the TSE on the request as of Sunday evening.
The campaign of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, filed a petition with the electoral court (TSE) on Saturday 17 October asking for free transport and individual notices for voters whose polling place changed for the Brazil election 2026 runoff. Poder360 reported the filing on Sunday 18 October at 4:31 p.m. ET.
The vote on Sunday 25 October pits Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), against Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, and turnout could decide a close race. The Brazil runoff date is fixed, so voters have one week to find their new polling place.
What the Lula Campaign Is Asking For
The coalition, called Brasil Pronto Pra Mais, asks the regional electoral courts (TREs) to publish the full list of changed sections within 48 hours, with the old and new address of each, Poder360 reported. It also wants individual warnings through the e-Título voter app, WhatsApp, text message or email.
The petition further asks the TSE to work with city halls on free transport between communities and the new polling places, plus special transport for older people and people with disabilities, Metrópoles reported. The campaign says the changes were announced only on websites and apps, which it argues added to absenteeism in the first round.
How Many Voters Are Affected
The Electoral Justice changed the address of 4,352 sections for the runoff, about 0.87% of all sections, Poder360 reported. São Paulo has 982 of them, Minas Gerais 514, Rio de Janeiro 431 and Bahia 312.
The TSE says the moves came from building renovations, accessibility upgrades and rain damage, Poder360 reported. Exame put the abstention argument in the campaign’s own words: the information exists but is not effectively available.
What Voters Can Do Now
The TSE tells voters to check their polling place in the e-Título app or on their regional court’s website, Poder360 reported. Our earlier reports cover the 4,352 moved sites and the 592,000 voters facing new polling places.
The campaign wants a notice sent to each affected person instead of relying on websites and apps.
What It Means for US Readers
Polls already show a tight race, with the latest Datafolha survey putting Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, as we reported. In a contest this close, even small gaps in turnout may matter for Brazilian stocks, the real and US-listed Brazilian shares.
The petition is a request, not a ruling, and it comes from one side of the race. Readers should watch whether the TSE answers it before 25 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.1% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (18 October, 6:25 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has seen about US$187.5 million in total bets.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists Brazilian runoff contracts. These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on news.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.1% · Lula 20.5% (US$187 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 21%
As of 18 October, 6:20 pm ET (23:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the TSE will grant any of the requests, or whether the regional courts can publish the full lists within 48 hours. We found no official reply as of Sunday evening.
It is also not known how many of the affected voters have already learned of the change. No count of voters who missed the first round because of a moved polling place has been published.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Lula’s campaign ask the TSE for?
It asked on Saturday 17 October for free transport and personal notices for voters whose polling place changed. It also wants a list of every changed section published within 48 hours.
How many polling sections changed for the Brazil runoff?
The Electoral Justice changed 4,352 sections, about 0.87% of the total. São Paulo has the most, with 982.
Why did the polling places move?
The TSE cited building renovations, accessibility improvements and rain damage. Voters can check their place in the e-Título app.
When is the Brazil runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner is either Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources: Poder360, 18 October 2026; Metrópoles, 18 October 2026; Exame, 18 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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