President Donald Trump is heading to Kansas for a campaign event on Monday as polls show a tightening Senate race between Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a seat Republicans have held for nearly a century.
Trump is scheduled to campaign near Wichita just weeks before the November 3 election, as Democrats are increasingly optimistic about taking control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. The Kansas Senate race has emerged as among the tossups that could determine which party holds a majority when Congress reconvenes next year.
The president has traversed the country in recent weeks to try to boost candidates who are supportive of his policies, including several candidates running in competitive races in traditionally conservative states.
The national environment has shifted in Democrats’ favor as Trump’s approval rating has slipped in recent months amid growing voter frustration with the economy, largely centered around affordability and the cost of living.
...
Kansas, a farm state, could also be particularly vulnerable to impacts of soaring diesel prices amid the Iran war.
Republicans will be hoping the Trump rally could build enthusiasm among the conservative base to head to the polls in November, but Democrats are still optimistic after a flurry of surveys have shown the race could be decided by a razor-thin margin.
Kansas has long been a conservative stronghold, the Democrats last winning a Senate race there in 1932.
In a statement to Newsweek, the Marshall campaign described the election as a "clear choice" between a senator who has "delivered major wins for our farmers, cut taxes for the middle class, and secured the border" or a "Chuck Schumer-funded Democrat."
"We look forward to welcoming President Trump to Kansas today—a president who is second to none at getting out the vote," the statement reads.
Newsweek reached out to the Hamilton campaign for comment via email.
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating in Kansas
Three recent polls reveal that Trump’s approval rating is underwater in Kansas, despite him winning the state by 16 points against former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
Trump’s net approval rating was -7 points in a recent YouGov poll of 2,255 likely voters conducted from September 24 to October 4. Forty-six percent of respondents said they approved of Trump, while 53 percent disapproved of him, the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, found.
Meanwhile, a The New York Times/ Siena poll gave him a -15 point approval rating, with 40 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving. It surveyed 605 voters from September 22 to 30, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
In an Emerson College poll, 53 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump while 40 percent approved, giving him a -13 point approval rating among 750 likely voters. The poll was conducted from September 15 to 16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton: What Kansas Senate Race Polls Show
Although Kansas is not traditionally seen as competitive in federal races, polling has shown a tight race between Hamilton and Marshall.
The YouGov poll gave Hamilton a 3-point lead over Marshall, 48 percent to 45 percent, while the Times poll showed a dead heat, with each candidate receiving support from 45 percent of respondents. Meanwhile, the Emerson poll showed Hamilton up 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent.
A recent poll from InsiderAdvantage, however, showed Marshall up a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent. It was conducted among 1,200 likely voters from October 13 to 14, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Democrats view Hamilton, who is a well-known pastor in the state, as a strong candidate against Marshall, who was first elected in 2020. But Republicans are hopeful the partisan lean of the Sunflower State will keep the seat in GOP hands this November.
An Emerging Battleground?
Democrats have eyed Kansas in recent cycles as a potential future battleground, as the state has trended leftward over the past few decades.
In 2024, Trump carried Kansas by about 16 points. He won it by about 15 points in 2020 and 20 points in 2016. Mitt Romney won Kansas by nearly 22 points in 2012, while John McCain won it by about 15 points in 2008. Former President George W. Bush won Kansas by 25 points in 2004 and 21 points in 2000.
Kansas City suburbs have fueled Democrats’ hope that the state could become less rigidly conservative. Areas around Johnson County have rapidly become more Democratic, but the state overall still favors Republicans.
The state is led by Democratic Governor Laura Kelly, who won in 2018 and 2022.
Democrats also made a play for Kansas’ Senate race in 2020, but Marshall defeated Democrat Barbara Bollier by more than 11 points.
This year, Kansas is also facing impacts of rising diesel fuel, as the state has a large agricultural economic sector.
Diesel is important to farmers for several reasons. Heavy agricultural machinery, including tractors, harvesters, and irrigation pumps, use diesel engines. Rising diesel prices translate to higher operating costs for farmers. It also powers trucks, trains and ships that move agricultural products across the supply chain, increasing transportation costs across the industry.
Diesel prices averaged $6.0722 in Kansas on Monday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). That is lower than the $6.2039 average one month earlier, but still higher than the average of $3.3907 one year ago.
Hamilton has also held stronger fundraising than Marshall. In the third quarter of 2026, the Democratic candidate raised nearly $10 million, while Marshall raised less than $1 million.
What Prediction Markets Show
Marshall remains the favorite to win reelection on prediction markets. He had a 61 percent chance on Kalshi and a 63 percent chance on Polymarket of defeating Hamilton. Still, that is narrower than one month earlier, when his chances stood at around 74 percent in both markets.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
What Happens Next
Hamilton and Marshall will spend the next two weeks making their final pitches to voters across Kansas in hopes of motivating their bases, while also winning over any remaining undecided voters. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a pure toss-up.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Trevor Davies